@ErikAston, I think this game is already at more than 10.5m. This was the most popular game across Europe during Christmas. People will see how this is way too underpriced when Nintendo releases its quarterly results soon.
I think it's interesting to note VGC's data on this game and its predecessor.
At week 106, Brain Training aka Brain Age 1 was selling ~50k to make it 7th worldwide that week with a total of ~7.2M at that time (if you can believe their figures)
It is now (6th) at approx ~11M while More Brain Training (5th worldwide for week ending 5th january) aka Brain Age 2 is in its 106th week with approx 9M sold worldwide so far. It looks like these games will go on selling for a long time and 10.5M could yet be too low for this game
I hope the bearish here know that the game is already over 7 million and moving units in Europe like if it is given away for free. Mid January Nintendo will most likely announce 8.5 Million + shipped. And there is no end in sight.
^^^According to GoNintendo, coming straight from Nintendo's recent reportings I assume, LTD shipments of the game are already at 7.53 million.
The first game has shipped 9.66 million already, and this sequel has outsold it by more than 1 million copies in Japan. (According to this Google cache of VGChartz' WW million-seller list: http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:_ZO0JsEwoyIJ:www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php+vgchartz+software&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us )
Interpret this how you will. I'm not sure how the sequel is selling speed-wise compared to the original outside of Japan, but I remain HIGHLY bullish on this stock. I've seen very little reason to doubt that it will sell over 10M copies.
Well, the problem is that the forecasts aren't that high compared to the actuals. The game is close to 5M in Japan alone (and around 1M above the original), when I wrote that comment I just bought a shitload of stocks to get the game back to around 7.5M WW sales. So that is only 2.5M sales for both the US and Europe combined. It is already out of Europe for a while (probably because the first one sold considerably better there) and is still high in the charts for European countries like the UK, Germany and Spain (I don't see charts for other European countries). Even if this game would completely bomb in the US (and it isn't with 250k sold already, I personally expect it to be between 500-750k at the end of the year) and stop selling everywhere it would be around 6M. More likely scenario is that the game keeps selling in at least both Japan and Europe and this game has potential to get around or even above 10M WW sales eventually. So with at around 6M sold units already and selling well almost everywhere it makes no sense to value this stock at a price around 7M which shows no regard whatsoever for the huge upward potential for this stock. Now about your idea that not selling well in an area which expected to account for around 20% of total sales could result in the stock going 30% down. But if you for instance expected 5M for Japan, 3M for Europe and 2M for the US to give a total expectation of 10M. Why would lowering the 2M expected sales in the US because of lackluster sales ever result in a 3M lower expectation of total sales?
@boontje, even considering the trends in Brain Age you point out, 20% US representation would account for 1.8 million units sold given the former forecast. A 30% drop isn't much if the previous expectations were very high, and then actuals were very low. September sales were 22% below what we were expecting. A 30% drop in the longer-term stock would not seem out of line at all.
People completely overestimate the importance of the US sales on this stock. Total American sales for the original Brain Age only accounts for around 20% of the total sales and when NPD numbers don't show a huge sales right out of the gate the stock goes down by 30%? Also don't forget the type of game this is. This is meant to keep selling at a very steady rate for years to come. Anyway, please all keep selling this stock. I'll just pick them up and once Nintendo shows releases their numbers I'll make a killing on this stock.
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What is the figure now, in your opinion ?