This game should realistically sell 2 million units easy. Over it's lifetime 4 million is possible. This is possible due to the many new features to draw different types of gamers to the game. Their are many different skills that can be rewarded in Forza 2 besides just driving.
@Mattpowel's article that claims Forza 2 has been delayed until May 19th. I've been following the game and in the last few days word got out that the game was delayed until May 29th, and this is augmented by that date appearing on the official MS site (see link).
Also, the article you submitted appears to have made a major typo which explains the 19th being questionable. From the article: "Given the long delays that the first game suffered, it probably won’t come as a surprise to anyone that Forza Motorsport 2 has been pushed back two weeks and won’t be available until May 19th."
Note that 2 weeks after May 15 = May 29, and also that the game never had been announced or been rumored to be released 2 weeks prior to May 19 (which would be May 5). Thus, the typo.
Joe80 and LiquidJ, great posts. I am of the opinion that Forza 2 will do stronger than the first Forza due to (1) larger userbase (2)better brand recognition and (3) more conducive environment.
I think the end of the Xbox cycle was to the detriment of the first Forza because people were looking towards the 360 already. The Xbox was much more obsolete in the minds of Xbox players than the PS2 is at this point with Final Fantasy XII last fall and God of War II now. Many people did not even know about Forza (recalling the posts here when the game was listed).
There are a lot of racing games, but I think the point of differentiating types of racing games is important (arcade vs simulator). In the world of role-playing games, I don't think anyone can say Final Fantasy XII and Oblivion tradeoff in sales as they are very different types of RPGs. These different types of games within the same genre attract different market segments.
Alpha I am aware of that and these are just my personal views of the stock.
But as I see it if you are trying to sell this stock there really isn't much incentive for someone else to buy it from you if there isn't room for growth because it's a hell of a lot riskier to expect that this game will draw the same crowd that it was able to during its debut because of the change in climate of the industry. It just ties up money (DKP) that could be working elsewhere for at least a year (in my mind at least a year and a half).
LiquidJ, remember that stocks forecast the lifetime performance of a company or...in the simExchange's case, a video game.
The stock price should not only grow as the game sells, it should predict all sales over the lifetime. Game stocks may appear to lag sales a bit right now, but it should be better once more people are trading.
I'm not saying they are going to change their core gameplay just that it makes sense for them to add features that would apply to other audiences in order to keep up sales by attracting new gamers or lost gamers. Especially, since as you stated the general public opinion is that they have grown stale (in the case of NFS).
November is really pushing it. If someone buys a system after August they most likely are going to be buying it with one of the big new games. Forza will have almost no marketing power at that time. Meanwhile EA will be pushing Football and Burnout. Madden is August, I think Assassin's Creed is September, GTA and Halo 3 are October.
All I'm saying is that at 125 this stock is giving no room for growth within the next year. It could quite possibly sell 1.25 million units in a year, but lifetime sales of any significance more than that wouldn't be realized until at least XMAS 2008 in my opinion; when it could take advantage of the budget market.
I still don't think publishers are going to make a game more simish or more arcadey because they think this change to a sim/arcade racer will boost their bottom line. Maybe minor changes, but nothing that will really get a sim consumer or arcade consumer to jump ship.
If we take 360's sales upto now in NA and PAL and add what it sold last month for ex, this can give us a rough estimate for its #'s in AUG (but we should do it for NOV because Forza won't see real competition until then). For AUG not NOV: 5.83 million NA + 228,000x5= 6,970,000.
3.36 million PAL + lets say 100,000x5= 3,860,000 -> =10,830,000 But it will probably be 11 or 12 mil as you said because sales will probably increase, and who knows MS could do a price cut and gain even more sales, they're already making a nice profit on each 360.
Regarding GTR it has gone silent, so who knows when its coming, and it is niche.
If only 1 in 15 people pick up Forza 2 by AUG. with ~12.0 million 360's that's 800,000 AND that would be an attach rate of only 6%. Then Forza 2 would have ~4 years and only need to sell 400,000 to meet its current stock price. (And long tail often adds up to more...)
But we really should not say it has to sell 1 in 15 BY AUG, more like what it would have to be lifetime.
The 360 is predicted to sell 50,540,000 on here. If Forza 2 sold 1,240,000 that equals an attach rate of 2.37%. Forza 1 sold 2 million according to Wikpedia if you count its bundles, and vgcharts has it at 1.1 million. A year after FZ1 was released (FZ1 sold really nothing after that time) XB1 sales in NA and PAL were at 16.07+7.57= 23,640,000. FZ1@ 2 million/23,640,000= an attach rate of 8.46%. FZ1@ 1.1 million would = 4.65%.
So you're saying that FZ2 should have an attach rate much lower than 2.37% even though FZ1 had an attach rate of 8.46%? And FZ2 is expected by many to sell much better than FZ1.
The hype for E3 2005 was unprecedented. Microsoft was throwing money everywhere to hype up the 360 and XBOX as a brand. Yes, it was getting everyone excited about Next Gen games but it also had the effect of making XB games strangely as popular as PS2 games during April and May. 5 out of the Top 10 games of the month were XBOX games for two months straight.
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