You may remember the DS game that was recalled a few weeks back because of an 'offensive' name that it tagged players who got a score of 0, well it seems that Nintendo really like the word 'spastic' and have included it in the not-so-good Wii game, Mario Party 8. As such, the game has also been recalled.
I find it strange that this Future continues to plummet. Here are a couple sales factors to consider:
We know that an article written on the 1st of July stated that Mario Party had sold 550,000 total at that point.
It is unknown where they got their information, but it's unlikely that it was very up to date information, I would say at that point it did not include the last 2 weeks of what will show on the NPD numbers.
We also know that the 314k were reported from NPD the initial launch week of the game.
How likely do people think it is that in the following 5 weeks after launch the game only moved 290k, the current price for this future?
We know for a fact there were at least 240k, the question is was that 1 week old info that was brand new on the 1st of July or was it 2 week old info not including the most recent sales?
240k in the first 3 weeks would indicate an average of 80k a week and then we are predicting a drop off for the remaining weeks to 30k each week.
If it was up to date info then sales dropped from 310k in 1 week down to an average of 60k for 4 weeks and then another 50k for the last week.
Keep in mind how long it takes for information to translate into an article that gets posted, I believe it most likely the info did not include the last 2 weeks of NPD numbers and this stock should be at least valued at 32-33 DKP.
@SERAPHRowen, maybe someone isn't used to the new market maker yet and did't realize it reacts very quickly to large negative order flow. Or maybe someone did an ErikAston and sold way too many shares =P. Though I agree the Wii stock (and other console stocks) is overvalued!
Wow... how did this get so low? I'm already maxed on this stock, so I can't go in anymore... but according to the VGCharts numbers, which I admit aren't always the most accurate of things, this stock has already sold past the predicted futures amount. By a huge portion.
This stock is a steal right now. There's no reason for it to be below 30 DKP. 25.82 DKP is absurdly low.
I think the current price is a really good estimate for this stock based on available information. It seems fairly in line with NPD sales info and the sales info already mentioned. At most I would go 31dkp with stock but nothing over that.
@pilias_simber, agreed. I think the publishers get all their data from NPD anyways. I am not exactly sure where they are getting their data midmonth as I don't think NPD releases their data to clients weekly at all. However, I also don't think they are talking about the number of units they have shipped. I'd like to hear more thoughts as that is the key to the June future.
Considering the article was written on the 2nd I seriously doubt they were basing their numbers off of July 1st sales data, more than likely it was at least a week old data.
@mithrilwind, are you referring to June sales? I don't really care about what VGChartz has to say, but I do know that NPD reported 314.4k copies sold in the US in May. There was a press release on July 2 from Nintendo that indicated Mario Party 8 has sold 550,000 copies since May 29. That would leave 235k sales in June up until they put out this press release. Since the press release came out July 2, lets assume they were able to get updated numbers from the week ending July 1. That gives one more week in the June retail calendar month for sales. In that case, 331,700 copies may be a bit high. Thoughts?
Hate to be the bad guy, but wouldn't the VGchartz figures indicate a clear deceleration of sales? Now I think the total sales of this game are probably accurate and sales will pick up again during the Christmas season but I don't think 300-400k is realistic.
Last weeks sales were 49,320. Assuming sales stayed steady, it would sell approx 200k or a range of 180-220k with a 10% VGchartz deviation.
Personally, I think sales in July are going to continue to decrease at a rate of around 10-25% as current trend indicates. I think I'll be attempting to short this one against all popular odds. :)
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