I would go by the blog update which states 14 days after the game is released. Right now there isn't a single review of the game based off of the localized version for America, so I would expect a lot of reviews to hit a few days before this title launches.
The lowest review on the site currently (EuroGamer) really shouldn't be up anyways...in the first paragraph they describe how: "The game we've struggled through in Japanese, with the aid of a dog-eared printout from GameFAQs" I think we can agree that you're not going to get an accurate view of a game through a rough translation and reading a walkthrough. After reading their review, they would give 10/10 to a version where they could actually understand the dialogue.
@kspraydad, I think the one week thing was for Halo 3. I think they said they are experimenting different ways to expire the contracts to see which way is best. I think the idea with freezing it was preventing trading on actual reviews info but that is likely not going to work since reviews can come out basically anytime. I think there were also mumbles about how the future should not expire 3 days after or something.
According to the summary of the future it says that it will stop trading 1 week before release (ie Sept 24th)...this is contrary to what it says in the BLOG So...which is it? I am trading on the assumption that the ACTUAL TRADING PAGE that MOST people would go by says that trading stops 1 week before release. Thus I am expecting there not to be 20+ reviews....
For one thing, there will probably be a few dozen other reviews posted. Twilight Princess had 72 reviews. This won't cash out until mid October.
Second, the reviews already up are from places that are a bit more obscure, and look to be European. Look at the 100% reviews for Twilight Princess/Wind Waker and you'll see that they have yet to review the game.
This game will easily have 30-40+ reviews before the future cashes out (if not twice that), so I wouldn't put much stock in the first few.
I agree the September futures on Zelda were definitely overvalued at 1.4 million. I can't believe I missed the IPO on this one, very well played Starless. I'll have to pay more attention next time.
@Starless, Crikey, I'm going to start calling you The Assassin, man! You comment and 65 bucks gets taken out of this bad boy. Or is that just the weight of Starless coming into play?
I think that the combination of good reviews, good Japanese sales trends, and the name gave such a large estimate for 6 days of sales. I personally didn't think that 1.4 million was out of reach, but then again I love Zelda. That being said, I think there's a lot of people out there like me, who are going to pick up the game within the first 6 days. I think that 1.4 is high, but not high enough to justify dropping the bottom totally out of the future.
I think Zelda IS that popular. I'm not sure what else to compare the game to, though. I don't know what other games have gone from less successful console to wildly successful handheld game.
I will buy as many as you're willing to sell at 60DKP, my friend. ; )
Is everyone aware that this game is being released on October 1? This means the future is predicting Phantom Hourglass to sell 1.4 Million copies in six days.
This future strikes me as being very overvalued, but with no else appearing to agree with me (the future rising in value), I'm starting to doubt myself. Is Zelda really that big in the US? With the game using a new control system, I'd expect first week sales to be less than that of a "normal" Zelda game. Positive reviews will help offset this, but I suspect many people will wait for friends' opinions and for more reviews (perhaps some user reviews from sites like GameFAQs) to come in before purchasing the game, thus pushing their purchase out of our future's time frame. When I first saw this future, I though at max it would be worth 60DKP, however as I do not live in the US, I don't know what type of hype and exposure this game is getting or is expected to get.
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I would go by the blog update which states 14 days after the game is released. Right now there isn't a single review of the game based off of the localized version for America, so I would expect a lot of reviews to hit a few days before this title launches.
The lowest review on the site currently (EuroGamer) really shouldn't be up anyways...in the first paragraph they describe how:
"The game we've struggled through in Japanese, with the aid of a dog-eared printout from GameFAQs"
I think we can agree that you're not going to get an accurate view of a game through a rough translation and reading a walkthrough. After reading their review, they would give 10/10 to a version where they could actually understand the dialogue.