I can't believe this stock is rising so much, my only guess is that either people are moving money out of it to short other stocks or there is some piece of info the rest of us have that is saying this game suddenly picked up in sales by a factor of 3-4 times what it was selling.
This remains an excellent short. The stock is Overvalued by 10-30 DKP
Both Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings and Final Fantasy Tactics Advance have dropped off the Media Create's top 50 chart. I don't think they will make it back up on the top 50 anytime soon. This marks the end of the official chart tracking in Japan. VGC seems to be the only source left for tracking these two games.
A huge drop in ranking this week. Media Create has this game at 42nd, a huge drop of 18 places. I won't be surprised if this game falls off the top 50 as early as next week.
This is only its 5th week on sale and if i'm correct with opening sales of 154,891 as per argon's article sales have dropped by 93% in just 5 weeks. with week 4 being 15,740.
Sales appear still good enough to break 300k in japan but surpassing a miracle in the US i can't see this clearing 600k. A sure fire short if ever there was one
According to Media Create, this game has dropped out of the top 10. Given the number of PSP, it is actually holding up surprisingly well.
Prior to the fall, it has sold about 219K for the first three weeks (Media Create). VGC has over-estimated it by at least 18K. By my calculation based on data from Media Create, this game has only sold about 235K in Japan. It will be a struggle to reach 300K.
As for the rest of the world, it's unlikely to surpass the Japanese figures, given past performance. Three things are conspiring against it. One, the original FFT sold just under a million in the US, compared to 1.4M in Japan (i.e. US sold less than in Japan) (VGC). And that is on the PSX which are sold in tens of millions.
Two, FF titles are not particularly strong on the handheld (just need to look at FFXII:RW on the DS right now). And this is the PSP we are talking about.
Three, the original FFT did badly in Europe. Plus Europe traditionally sell less FF games than other regions.
All in all, it will be a very steep uphill battle if this game were to meet its current prediction. I highly doubt that it will, it will probably settle somewhere around the 500-550K, which make this stock overvalued.
currently, this game has sold 256,597 copies in Japan, a market where it is both more popular as a franchise and has a 3million + larger console base. It's fourth week sales came in at under 18,000units. That number will not rise and will in fact only get smaller to the point where, like tactics advance this game is making the rounds as a sort of elite used title.
Now, in America, where the title is less popular overall and there are less then 9 million PSP's in circulation - many of those in the hands of people much more interested in socom, grand theft auto and sports rather than turn based strategy - this game is set up to sell surprisingly badly, regardless of its quality.
The dilemma here, and one I understand, is that everyone knows that the game is very very good. But, like so many games before it and many to come, that simply doesn't matter. This stock is somehow holding itself aloft at 100DKP when it simply will not reach that benchmark, however unfortunate that might be.
The end result, very optimistically, will be just over 500K sold: at which point the game will, like the other FF tactics games, become incredibly elusive as a used gem. Let's stop fooling ourselves here.
FF Tactics:tLW is about to quickly drop in price due to poor second week sales in Japan.
It sold 154,891 in its first week, and 39,480 in its second week.
Its first week sales are 69% of what FF Tactics Advance sold in its first week, and the second week number is 59% of what Tactics Advance sold in its second week. Like I said before, since FF Tactics is a remake, its sales will drop off especially quickly.
FF Tactics Advance sold 442K total in Japan; FFT:tLW will end up selling a little over 60% of that - about 270K in Japan.
Outside of Japan, it is more difficult to predict. The original FFT sold 54% of its copies in Japan, according to VGchartz. Going by that, this game will sell about 480K worldwide (42% of what the game is currently predicted to sell).
This stock is priced at over double what it should be.
6
VGCharts link to game
They currently have them at 280k and it doesn't look like they're selling many more there.
I don't think we could expect more than 200k from a JRPG, especially one that is one it's 6th remake in the US, and at best 100k from Europe.
Currently we have this stock valued at 850k.
This stock needs to be shorted by at LEAST 25DKP, probably 30