Why do you continue to insist that I think this game will sell sub-15DKP or want to short it to a large degree? I have never stated that, even stating I do not agree with the vgchartz figure, while I before stated that "this stock should be around 25DKP max", I do not hold that opinion anymore due to the fact that I find vgchartz for lower sales figures extremely unreliable and the repeated announcements by company execs of these types of games slowly edging their way past predictions. The current price is within a reasonable estimate, as I think this game, with a platinum/budget repackaging could end up creeping toward 300k.
@apujanata, Interesting. Seems solid as an argument but given the tolerances, would you say it is also safe to assume that the numbers are also capable of going so low as 100k?
If we take the supposed minimums you gave us of 50+20+10 and add 20%, we get 96k. So what if we just compromised and say it will hit 125k total, leaving this stock to run ~12.5? Not that it actually changes anything, but we can all agree that this stock is heavily overvalued.
One more thing : February 8, 2008. : vgchartz has this at 90,000 copies sold or 9DKP. December 24, 2007 : vgchartz has this at 70,000 copies sold or 7DKP
I noticed that in only 1.5 month, VGChartz has increase the # of this game by 20K (or 2 DKP). Is it really unthinkable to expect 150K (or 15 DKP) price for this game ?
Of course, if you agree with my 150K estimate, it STILL mean that the current price is way overpriced (the difference is that it is not as overpriced as before, when the estimate is 90K). Have fun correcting them.
Current US sales : less than 100K, but more than 50K. Current Europe sales : should be at least 20 - 30K. Total Future for Europe + US = (100 - 130K) + 20% = 120 - 150K Future Japan sales : at least 10K. Total future WW = 130 - 160K.
Remember that we predict GLS (current LTD + future sales), not just LTD.
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Just FYI, VGC is tracking this game at 150k. This game has been released globally for some time now. This stock appears to be very over valued.