Agreed, I suspect that at times vgchartz enters numbers for games it assumes are still selling, I doubt that Madden will reach 3 million copies sold, nearly everyone who wants to play it has already gotten it, and those who haven't would probably just buy it for half the price used.
this title has surpassed 2M copies sold. I don't know how accurate that is, but even if you consider a 5-10% error, the difference big enough to suggest that the price of this stock needs to be fixed, that is, it has to increase.
360 sales wouldn't be the "bulk" of that number. At best, 360 sales would be just slightly higher than PS2 sales. In addition to those two, you've got sales split between the PS3/Wii/DS/PSP versions as well.
I'd say that the 360 version accounts for about 30% of total sales, which would put it at about 1.35 million sold. There's absolutely no way this stock should be higher than 150 and if you think it should be at 220, you need to go back and re-think your assumptions, especially regarding PS2 sales.
I don't know how reliable VGC's numbers are or EA's for that matter. But I think Xbox purchases are responsible for the bulk of those purchases, more than the PS3 and Wii. So feel free to short this stock while I will pick up some more. Personally, I think this stock can do about 220DKP, if not more.
@hottuna, I seriously doubt 360 sales should be this high for Madden. At this time last year Madden 06 had sold 963,227 copies on 360. Madden 07 in comparison has sold 1,196,603 (VGC). That number correlates extremely closely to the prediction of 1,199,350 I came up based on NPD data by adding AUG+SEP+ giving Madden 2/3rds the sales of SEP for the month of OCT.
This gives us growth of 24% for Madden 08 over Madden 07. Do people really believe Madden 08's sales grew over 25% from last year, at this point, especially with so many people putting their money toward buying Halo 3...
With all the significant releases Madden 08 is not going to reach 1.8 million on 360. Pilias and I had already calculated that when it was valued at 1.9 million, it would need to sell its current 16,000 per week all the way up to the release of Madden 09.
It looks like we might have written off this game a little early. According to GamesIndustry.biz, EA sold [url=http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=30201]4.5 million copies of Madden NFL 08 in their second quarter. It doesn't breakdown the numbers by console, but considering the lower number of PS3s in North America and the fact that the Wii owners' demographics don't fit with this title, it looks like the Xbox 360 version can increase its numbers by at least another million, if not more.
I just sold some of this stock the other day, but I just picked some back up on the back of this recent news.
@-THE-RAY-, It would have to sell 16,000 a week all the way through July, ever week, in order to meet the number it was at when I made my last comment.
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Agreed, I suspect that at times vgchartz enters numbers for games it assumes are still selling, I doubt that Madden will reach 3 million copies sold, nearly everyone who wants to play it has already gotten it, and those who haven't would probably just buy it for half the price used.