VG turned out to be pretty much dead on with the NPD data for the FUTURES period....
A serious look needs to be taken at the long as almost every new X buyer is getting FORZA there is little impetus to buy this... (IMO same thing happened to DiRT for the PS3 when Motorstorm is a pack in).
The prediction league on VGC is just a prediction league. They don't affect the numbers on the site, at all. If you look at their numbers, I hope you remember they do US+CA, CA is about 8-12% of their numbers, and thats why everybody says they overestimate more than underestimate. Look at the about us page to see where the numbers come from.
@Just_Ben, VGC isn't a prediction market. They do run a prediction league similar to the one NeoGAF has run for years. Basically people post their guesses on a message board and then these are all averaged--in other words a survey. Its not really a game.
A survey isn't accurate compared to a prediction market as the method is not self-error-correcting. On the simExchange, if an outlier player comes in and bids high or low for a game, other players will revert the market price to earn DKP. In a survey, outliers just pull the average the wrong way.
Also, prediction markets award accurate predictors for being right with more DKP so they can make more predictions. Bad predictors lose DKP so they make less predictions. This weights the opinions of the pool more towards accuracy. A survey does not do that.
@Just_Ben, In a manner of speaking, yes. Their members all bid on sales figures and are then graded on the % spread between their predictions and the actual NPD numbers. What I am not sure of is whether the numbers you see for weekly sales represent their predictions, actual retail sales data, or a combo of the 2. I have studied their predictions for the past 2 months so far, and for the most part they over estimate, just as we tend to do here. My point is this: IF their weekly numbers are indeed just their predictions, then the data is likely to be inflated in a lot of cases. Meaning if you are shorting based on their numbers, you could stand to make even more!! Their raw data does not track evenly with NPD (which is what we use so that's what matters here), and as I stated I have observed that their numbers versus NPD actuals gives you negative correction more often than not. Hope this helps!! For what it's worth, I wish there was more reliable sales data out there than NPD. Their main function is to cater to retailers, so one would assume it would always be in there best interest to state their figures conservatively, rather than risking estranging their paying retailer clientele by offering up inflated figures. Not sure if that makes sense.. hope it does.
1
Many .... *** many shops in england are now bundling PGR4 instead of Forza 2. simply becuase Forza is older.
Dont believe me check out the uks largest game retailer
http://www.game.co.uk/Xbox360/Hardware/HardwareBundle/~r333098/Xbox-360-Arcade-Pack-with-Smackdown-2008-Project-Gotham-Racing-4/