We are definitely on the same page! I also applied a declining sales metric that I have developed to project the final week of sales, and I am coming up with numbers almost identical to yours, also building in 20% slough. VG is a prediciton market as well, but I researched a bunch of their historical predictions, and they tend to over shoot, just like it seems that we often do here on the Sim.
It looks like people are tracking VG on ALL sales instead of just the futures period. The FIRST week of this games sales are NOT part of this future.
During the futures period this game, according to VG, has sold 18933, 10531, 7069...assuming the last week comes in at 7069 too this gives us a total of 43602 for the futures period.
Building in a 20% error rate still gives us a projected number of 52322 or 5.2 DKP ... yet this game is sitting at over 9 DKP
I see October sales of 60-65K max (6.5 DKP), and it's still in the 9 DKP range as we speak. Unless there is a huge spike in final week sales (10-27 to 11-4, why would there be?), this seems to be a nor brainer short with a potential yield of 3-4 per share!
VGC has PGR4 selling 29,000 in its 2nd week (its 1st week in OCT NPD Period), and 119,000 total. This game is dropping like a fly and should probably be shorted.
Also if we look at comparisons of PGR2 to PGR1 and PGR3 to PGR4 we see this: PGR1 was a launch title and sold 2.14 mil while PGR2 received better ratings, released 2 years later and only sold 1.56 mil. Similarly PGR3 was a launch title and sold 1.26 mil and now PGR4 is releasing 2 years later... with intense competition this holiday season and a lower rating than PGR3. The signs are pointing towards shorting PGR4.
If you're a fan of Forza or GT and want a really good driving game, you should probably look elsewhere. If you were a fan of PGR2, or you just like arcade racers, and you find Forza II too full-on, then PGR4 could be the title for you.
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We are definitely on the same page!
I also applied a declining sales metric that I have developed to project the final week of sales, and I am coming up with numbers almost identical to yours, also building in 20% slough.
VG is a prediciton market as well, but I researched a bunch of their historical predictions, and they tend to over shoot, just like it seems that we often do here on the Sim.