This is the last response I'm going to make, because I'm not here to try and convince people of VGC's accuracy, because even I won't claim that VGC is 100% accurate 100% of the time. I would say it's about 70% right most of the time, with software being harder to track than hardware. It wouldn't surprise me if a good many of the software totals are a bit off. But ioi will go back and adjust them when he discovers these problems (I'll even go ahead and send him this link showing those sales totals). Then once he realizes he's off, he'll be able to readjust the way he calculates weekly sales, thus his accuracy should improve. It's still a work in progress. I'm sure all tracking firms, such as NPD, MediaCreate, and Famitsu, didn't just start overnight, and became reliable and trusted the next day.
Out of the 100's of games that are tracked weekly on VGC, there's going to be a few that are wrong. And with lower selling games, it becomes harder to determine what the actual sales are, because you're data might only show a few 100 copies sold, but you're sources only cover 10% of the market. How can you know what the actual sales are? It's as much as a guessing game as it is using precise calculations to determine how your sources represent the total market. As you gain a better understanding of how your data represents the total market, you can get more accurate numbers. So again, when ioi sees the link I gave above, he'll be able to rework the calculations he uses for that game in particular, and for other games that have similar sales patterns.
There are examples which make me completely distrust potential accuracy of VGChartz. A recent example is the number they have for RE4: Wii, they claim 1.6 million units sold to consumers while even official Capcom sales announcement is only 1.25 million shipped units, and they claimed the 1.6 million figure several months before Capcom gave updated sales for the game. They also claim 2.6 million units sold to consumers for the PS2 version of the game, while Capcom official sales data has not changed since they gave a figure of 2 million units.
If a tracker can report almost 30% over actual maximum possible sales for a game, how realistic are their data?
I'm not going to bother responding to your first post (since I agree with it and understand 100%).
As for VGC data not being accurate enough to replace NPD data, I agree with that as well. Obviously NPD is going to be closer to the mark each month, because they cover more of the market. And I was never confessing that the simEx should start using it over NPD. I'm merely using it for trends. Though I trust VGC numbers, NPD is the standard in for USA numbers, and until a major company, like Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Capcom, Activision, EA, etc, uses VGC data can we say that NPD and VGC numbers are both correct (since neither has the true "correct" numbers, so they are both well within the margin of error from those true numbers), just like many believe MediaCreate and Famitsu to be right, even if they don't agree completely.
Yes the Wii Fit did drop out of the UK top spot which was attributed to shortages.
I am not sure where he gets his figures from other Japan may of sold upwards of 2 million and it is believed that is the volumne for Europe with the US only getting some 500 to 650k worth of kit.
That said other than the Japan number I cannot find anything that backs up any of that.
Didn't we have evidence of UK Wii Fit shortage ? (ELSPA chart drop from #2 to #40, IIRC) ?
On what basis did Michael Pachter base his "Nintendo is shipping four times as many units to Europe to maximise on the profits yielded by the strong Euro" statement ? Weird.
@Stever89, Forgot to mention this : Note about creating website to compete with VGC : I am just joking. I don't even want to think about the time commitment (time I have to spent to create such a website) should I do that, so no way I would ever think about doing it. I respect all the time that VGC has spent to create their website, and I didn't think that website as "bad" or "evil" (I do believe that the data they have is not "accurate enough to replace NPD data").
I think you didn't get my point. My point is that VGC's H/W data is "as good as" my own complete guesstimate (with no actual data from any retailer as my source / benchmark), which is crazy.
"theguy" is NOT "NPD marketing manager". Someone else claim that he is David Riley, but "theguy" refute that claim. It is up to you which version you believe.
You misunderstood the point of NeoGAF ban (and filtering) on VGC. It is to avoid post-war, between pro-VGC and anti-VGC faction within NeoGAF, which will generate hundreds and hundreds of post every week in M-create threads. It is not because NeoGAF hate VGC, but it is because it disrupted their balance.
A lot of people say that NeoGAF is pro a certain console, and hate a certain console. However, I have never been banned in that forum (or any other forum, for that matter), so I dont' that bias is a big factor.
I think I should stop discussing VGC, since posting these kind of post is too time consuming (for me), so I will not respond to any other post by you (or anyone else) anymore.
Nice discussion with you. Hope you enjoy your stay in SimEx, and hope you get to Top 25 soon (since it seem that you are very # oriented, which bode well for your prospect of succeeding here).
Billy Pidgeon, analyst for research firm IDC, has warned Nintendo that its success with the Wii console could backfire if it doesn't work on managing consumer expectation. Shortages of the fitness-based title Wii Fit have been widely reported, but are being felt most keenly in the US, and Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo is shipping four times as many units to Europe to maximise on the profits yielded by the strong Euro.
@apujanata, I would think that ioi doesn't spout that his numbers are absolutely better than NPD's, though a few members might make such a claim. Here's what I'm talking about. Every now and then ioi comes out and states that he doesn't see where they are getting their numbers, because his sources show a completely different picture, such as April 2008 data, where he had higher numbers for PS3/360 hardware, and had slightly higher GTA4 software numbers. He had about double the PS3 and 360 numbers, and had about 800k more GTA4 between the PS3 and 360s versions. But he doesn't say it's completely wrong. Here's a link to the thread about it. Ioi questioned NPD simply because his sources showed improved sales leading up to GTA4 week, and a good boost during the week of GTA4, while NPD data (though we don't have a weekly breakdown) shows a considerable drop compared to March, even with GTA4 (which I hope we can agree is one of the bigger games and probably a decent system mover). Even GameStop came out and stated the 360 had a 50% increase, but of course their customers would be the type of customer that would shop there, so I doubt Wal-Mart had a similar increase.
But of course he has to believe his numbers are at least reasonably accurate. Who would trust him if he put up the numbers and then was like "well I don't think I'm right, but whatcha gonna do about it?" That would work well.
When he first started VGChartz, he did use NPD data to tweak his formula's and adjust numbers, but he has since decided his numbers are accurate enough without having to adjust because of NPD. Every now and then he makes adjustments, probably because sources tell him of mistakes or the big three give some insight though I wouldn't actually know.
Some may actually claim that VGChartz numbers are better since you get them for free, you get all software and hardware numbers you want, you get more than USA, and you get weekly breakdowns. Not to mention that it centralizes all of this, and allows you to graph the data.
But by all means start you're own website. I wouldn't know where to begin such a project, since you'd have to start contacting retailers to get some data from them, and then learn how that data represents the market in general, and then take into the rest of the market. Try to get Wal-Mart, since it seems no one actually gets their data. That might make people respect your figures. Unfortunately, it's not easy to gain the respect of people (as VGChartz has discovered), and since NPD has basically been the standard for USA sales, everyone always compares any tracking source (in this case VGC) to NPD. But a little competition never hurt anybody, now did it?
Finally, to your last paragraph, I don't think VGChartz (at least ioi and the mods) attack other forums, though they got a bit touchy with that one NEOGaf thread. I mean, go to most forums (GameSpot, NEOGaf especially), and just mention VGChartz, and most will tell you to leave, and NEOGaf will simply ban you. Just because they don't agree with you. Wow. How professional and "non-arrogant." Or how about this statement made by a NPD marketing manager: "I was waiting for that. I have some VERY interesting insight that I'll be sharing with all of you soon. He had best check himself before he wrecks himself. Yeah, I'm going there. Oh, trust me, I WILL go there." Souce, Link to ioi's response.
@Stever89, I am not directing this comment specifically to you, and I am not trying to prove that VGC is "bad" or "evil", but since you raised the point : Well, in March 2008 NPD, my own personal average margin of error for the whole six platform (not including PS2, but including Total S/W) is a measly 12.34%, well within the range of "10% - 15% is standard of good source" VGC mentioned several times.
Does this mean I should open up my own website, gather up all similar sales focused person (such as you or zukaus or just_ben) and claim that my number is the TRUTH ? The one thing I don't like about VGC is their claim that their number are better than NPD, or that "NPD # are not as GOOD as our number". That is the kind of vibe I was getting (in 2006, when I first join as one of the first member of VGC) and I am still getting that vibe now.
Of course I understand that lots of work has been spent on that site, and they are entitled to be proud of what they have achieved, but claiming that they are better than NPD ? That is "arrogant", not "self congratulating". And attacking other forum just because they don't believe VGC (and ban VGC) ? Lol.
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This is the last response I'm going to make, because I'm not here to try and convince people of VGC's accuracy, because even I won't claim that VGC is 100% accurate 100% of the time. I would say it's about 70% right most of the time, with software being harder to track than hardware. It wouldn't surprise me if a good many of the software totals are a bit off. But ioi will go back and adjust them when he discovers these problems (I'll even go ahead and send him this link showing those sales totals). Then once he realizes he's off, he'll be able to readjust the way he calculates weekly sales, thus his accuracy should improve. It's still a work in progress. I'm sure all tracking firms, such as NPD, MediaCreate, and Famitsu, didn't just start overnight, and became reliable and trusted the next day.
Out of the 100's of games that are tracked weekly on VGC, there's going to be a few that are wrong. And with lower selling games, it becomes harder to determine what the actual sales are, because you're data might only show a few 100 copies sold, but you're sources only cover 10% of the market. How can you know what the actual sales are? It's as much as a guessing game as it is using precise calculations to determine how your sources represent the total market. As you gain a better understanding of how your data represents the total market, you can get more accurate numbers. So again, when ioi sees the link I gave above, he'll be able to rework the calculations he uses for that game in particular, and for other games that have similar sales patterns.