the first two halos also had tough competition to deal with, the fps genre has been over staurated for years now and yet they rose towering above the rest as setting the standard and selling alot of copies. apart from rainbow six and maybe UT i wouldnt consider the rest much serious competition. my point was that most people who buy a 360 will also pick up halo on the cheap to go with it leading to long legs.
Halo has SHIPPED 8.1M to retailers. Based on Activision's PR, we know that Halo 3 sold less than ~7M as Activision took the crown for 2007 with 7M+ copies sold according to NPD, Charttrack, & GFk.
It's likely close to 7M, but until people see legs, it's going to be tough for this stock to move much. It's dropped heavily in Europe, so it's really up to the US to carry much of the load.
Also, it's an extremely crowded Genre with COD 4 doing so well, and more shooters coming every couple of months. Rainbow Six 2 is in March, Unreal Tournament will be out this year, Army of Two, Battlefield, Far Cry, Frontline, and many others.
Given we're less than halfway through the cycle, I see 10M as a likely target, but there's likely not a ton of reason to drive it higher until we get a few more months of strong legs.
i really cant see why this game isnt valued higher, i mean it already has sold 8.1million according to microsoft and halo 1+2 proved they have legs so theres no reason to suggest this wont sell many more copies over time, it also has very good chances of it being part of a bundle probably next xmas. most people who buy the 360 over the next couple of years will buy this game with it as it is seen as the symbol of the xbox and has a huge online community. halo2 sold 8.5million copies and the 360 only had a total userbase of 22million, if the same ratio is applied here (probably wont reach this figure) to current GLS for 360 then halo3 could sell about 20million. this is probably unrealistic but something in the 13-15 range is more achieveable imo. verdict = currently undervalued.
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the first two halos also had tough competition to deal with, the fps genre has been over staurated for years now and yet they rose towering above the rest as setting the standard and selling alot of copies. apart from rainbow six and maybe UT i wouldnt consider the rest much serious competition. my point was that most people who buy a 360 will also pick up halo on the cheap to go with it leading to long legs.