I haven't really think about LTD breakdown, but I will do it now.
Pessimistic estimate : (using GCN, the worst selling last-gen console H/W in US). 2001 : 1,205,666 (launch year). Wii : 1,080,310. Multiplier : 90% 2002 : 2,258,003 (include Dec). Wii : 4,939,485 (exclude Nov). Removing Dec 02 from GCN give us a multiplier of 2.96 Based on those data, I will use 2.5 multiplier for 2008, 2.0 multiplier for 2009, 1.5 for 2010 and 1.0 for 2010 2003 : 3,268,266. Wii 2008 (est) : 8,170,665 2004 : 2,122,024. Wii 2009 (est) : 4,244,048 2005 : 1,696,481. Wii 2010 (est) : 2,544,722 2006 : 756,653. Wii 2011 (est) : 756,653 I will then use multiplier of 2.5 to get the WW figure. 2007 : 20.4 Mill 2008 : 10.6 Mill 2009 : 6.3 Mill 2010 : 1.8 Mill I notice that this calculation is much worse than yours.
Optimistic estimate : Instead of using GCN trending, use PS2 trending (vs 2007 sales for Wii, or 2001 sales for PS2). Assume 1.6 Million Wii sold in Dec 2007. Use 2.5 Multiplier to get WW # from US #. Disregard result of 2012 and above (assume Wii has shorter life span compared to PS2). 2008 : 22.2 2009 : 16.7 2010 : 11.6 2011 : 14.6 (I adjust this downward to 10, to signify shorter life span) Total LTD = 77.5 Million
My 2008 - 2011 total is -2.8+1.7+4.6+5 = 8.5 Million higher than yours, even after reducing Wii potential a lot (4.6 for 2011, 12.5 for 2012 and 7.5 for 2013, = total of 24.6 Million). Without reducing Wii potential, LTD is 103.1 Million.
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I haven't really think about LTD breakdown, but I will do it now.
Pessimistic estimate : (using GCN, the worst selling last-gen console H/W in US).
2001 : 1,205,666 (launch year). Wii : 1,080,310. Multiplier : 90%
2002 : 2,258,003 (include Dec). Wii : 4,939,485 (exclude Nov). Removing Dec 02 from GCN give us a multiplier of 2.96
Based on those data, I will use 2.5 multiplier for 2008, 2.0 multiplier for 2009, 1.5 for 2010 and 1.0 for 2010
2003 : 3,268,266. Wii 2008 (est) : 8,170,665
2004 : 2,122,024. Wii 2009 (est) : 4,244,048
2005 : 1,696,481. Wii 2010 (est) : 2,544,722
2006 : 756,653. Wii 2011 (est) : 756,653
I will then use multiplier of 2.5 to get the WW figure.
2007 : 20.4 Mill
2008 : 10.6 Mill
2009 : 6.3 Mill
2010 : 1.8 Mill
I notice that this calculation is much worse than yours.
Optimistic estimate :
Instead of using GCN trending, use PS2 trending (vs 2007 sales for Wii, or 2001 sales for PS2). Assume 1.6 Million Wii sold in Dec 2007. Use 2.5 Multiplier to get WW # from US #. Disregard result of 2012 and above (assume Wii has shorter life span compared to PS2).
2008 : 22.2
2009 : 16.7
2010 : 11.6
2011 : 14.6 (I adjust this downward to 10, to signify shorter life span)
Total LTD = 77.5 Million
My 2008 - 2011 total is -2.8+1.7+4.6+5 = 8.5 Million higher than yours, even after reducing Wii potential a lot (4.6 for 2011, 12.5 for 2012 and 7.5 for 2013, = total of 24.6 Million). Without reducing Wii potential, LTD is 103.1 Million.