I am not able to go back and check your earlier comment, but I seem to recall you mentioning X, which IIRC you said was released with 5 million PS2s, is that correct?
I find it perfectly reasonable to expect roughly the same number of PS3s out there by the point this game launches, especially if its 3rd or 4th quarter next year. The PS3 already has 3 million sold and we're only in the 2nd quarter, Its likely the PS3 will be much closer to 5 million by the end of this year, possibly even hitting 5 million before Christmas.
What I was going off of to predict the sales of this game was this:
3rd quarter 2008 launch of the game. (I am guessing but it seems reasonable, anyone feel free to amend this if you have solid data or good arguments)
Install base at launch of 10 million PS3s.
2 Years before Final Fantasy XIV launches.
PS3 price cut sometime next year or this year of $100, with a further reduction in the following year of $50 when the smaller Chips ship.
By the time Final Fantasy XIV launches I am expecting approximately 25 million PS3s. I am going with a 20%-30% attach rate for this game by that time.
Feel free to point out any points that I might be mistaken on, I think a healthy discussion on this is good for both the stock price and the Sim Exchange in general.
4
I am not able to go back and check your earlier comment, but I seem to recall you mentioning X, which IIRC you said was released with 5 million PS2s, is that correct?
I find it perfectly reasonable to expect roughly the same number of PS3s out there by the point this game launches, especially if its 3rd or 4th quarter next year. The PS3 already has 3 million sold and we're only in the 2nd quarter, Its likely the PS3 will be much closer to 5 million by the end of this year, possibly even hitting 5 million before Christmas.
What I was going off of to predict the sales of this game was this:
3rd quarter 2008 launch of the game. (I am guessing but it seems reasonable, anyone feel free to amend this if you have solid data or good arguments)
Install base at launch of 10 million PS3s.
2 Years before Final Fantasy XIV launches.
PS3 price cut sometime next year or this year of $100, with a further reduction in the following year of $50 when the smaller Chips ship.
By the time Final Fantasy XIV launches I am expecting approximately 25 million PS3s. I am going with a 20%-30% attach rate for this game by that time.
Feel free to point out any points that I might be mistaken on, I think a healthy discussion on this is good for both the stock price and the Sim Exchange in general.