I was talking Japanese only numbers...they're quite far away from 3 million (just over 800,000) and the sales have dropped to a very low number.
Even if it launched Fall 2008, it would likely be with an install base closer to 3-4 million in Japan.
FF also averaged about a 12% attachment rate for all the PS and PS2 games. There's no rational reason to see that double, especially considering how games like VII were considered some of the best ever. If the attachment rate stays the same, with your predicted console sales, it would lead to sales of 3 million. I would also argue that Sony has lost Japan and that means the attachment rate could skew even lower (reasoning for this is on previous comment).
If Final Fantasy games sold about 5-6 million with the massive PS2 install base, how well will it do with a drastically reduced one (especially in Japan)? That's the real question.
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Even if it launched Fall 2008, it would likely be with an install base closer to 3-4 million in Japan.
FF also averaged about a 12% attachment rate for all the PS and PS2 games. There's no rational reason to see that double, especially considering how games like VII were considered some of the best ever.
If the attachment rate stays the same, with your predicted console sales, it would lead to sales of 3 million. I would also argue that Sony has lost Japan and that means the attachment rate could skew even lower (reasoning for this is on previous comment).
If Final Fantasy games sold about 5-6 million with the massive PS2 install base, how well will it do with a drastically reduced one (especially in Japan)? That's the real question.