Hey, wow. I knew it was a good idea to load up on this particular stock.
@lstormy10, Why is it inevitable that they'll replace Wii Play with another wiimote pack-in? The purpose of Wii Play is just to collect some old controller tech demos and be a small sample of the wiimote's possibilities for new users tacked on for $10 more than a regular controller. It's not like the wiimote will be gaining new features that require new tech demos, or that Nintendo would gain much by creating a new game specifically to drawn in the crowd not willing to spend the extra $10 on Wii Play over a regular controller.
If they ever do get around to a Wii Sports 2, I doubt it would make a great replacement for Wii Play. Old Wii owners may already have 4 wiimotes, and wouldn't want to be forced to buy a fifth to get Wii Sports 2. On the other hand, new Wii owners will have just gotten the original for free (in most regions), and something other than another Wii Sports would make for a better draw.
@feelmyring, I would believe that they easily would as they would be making the same amount of money basically as with Wii Play and with Wii Sports already packed in with Wiis in the U.S., many consumers would go ahead and pick up Wii Sports 2. Nintendo probably would either put Wii Sports at a more budget price point (if it is similar in amount of content as the original Wii Sports, which is the most likely case) or make it a pack in. The combination of another Wii Sports title with a packed in Wii-mote would be a titan in pushing copies of the title. Of course Nintendo is not going to not have a title with a packed-in Wii-mote, but having another title that has the Wii-mote packed in (like a Wii Sports 2) would just add to the "good thing". The consumer base would turn to purchase a Wii Sports 2 (because of the notoriety of the original Wii Sports) instead of Wii Play if both were offered as games that come with a Wii-mote. I believe it is inevitable that Nintendo introduces a different title to be packed with a Wii-mote and therefore, the sales of Wii Play can not be seen as something that will continue indefintely for the life of the console.
@feelmyring, There is only one problem with your prediction: if Nintendo introduces a new game that includes a Wii-mote packed in that is a more appealing game (such as a Wii Sports 2), then the sales of this title will most likely drop off quite a bit (as the value of this title is in its packed in Wii-mote).
@Just_Ben, I considered that, but I also considered that a good amount of Wii's are going to be sold as "bundles", as in sales people are going to recommend a certain package that will include Wii Play. I've seen it happen at Gamestop, in particular, dozens and dozens of times. I've seen less Wii's being sold without Wii Play than with it. I feel pretty comfortable with my 400k range ; )
Maybe a personal side node. I think that the Attach rate in december will be quite on the low side. Wii get bought as gifts, and it is possible that the people getting them buy their additional Wii motes in January not December.
One error I want to point out in feelmyring's post is that Wii HW sales for the month of October were 519K, not 819K. While that still makes the 239K Wii Play units sold the lowest monthly attach rate at 46%, it's not nearly as much of an anomaly as 29%.
Wii Play is money making machine, if you think about it. It is the same size as a Wii Mote, and cost maybe 10 cents more to produce. Nintendo is most likley selling it for 8$ more than a Wiimote to retailers. Lets say Nintendo makes 7.5$ for each copy, then for every 10 Million Nintendo is 75 Million $ income. Not bad for a game that cost most likely less than 1 Million to develop. Genius move.
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@lstormy10,
Why is it inevitable that they'll replace Wii Play with another wiimote pack-in? The purpose of Wii Play is just to collect some old controller tech demos and be a small sample of the wiimote's possibilities for new users tacked on for $10 more than a regular controller. It's not like the wiimote will be gaining new features that require new tech demos, or that Nintendo would gain much by creating a new game specifically to drawn in the crowd not willing to spend the extra $10 on Wii Play over a regular controller.
If they ever do get around to a Wii Sports 2, I doubt it would make a great replacement for Wii Play. Old Wii owners may already have 4 wiimotes, and wouldn't want to be forced to buy a fifth to get Wii Sports 2. On the other hand, new Wii owners will have just gotten the original for free (in most regions), and something other than another Wii Sports would make for a better draw.