I'm surprised the trading on the Wii Play July future is still so light compared to the other futures. Do those who use advanced trading know this future IPOed into the price determination phase like 2-3 days ago?
I think the NPD number for Wii Play in June was (at least to some extend) a direct result of Mario Party 8. MP8 is a multi-player game, which means Wii owners will need extra controllers. And between buying just a controller, and paying a little extra for some games as well (albeit crappy), I think 293K Wii owners thought it was a good idea to pay that little extra.
This kind of phenomenon could happen again when a quality (read, big name) multi-player game is released, most noticeably Super Smash Bros. Braw. Granted, lots of MP8 owners might buy SSBB as well (which means they already have extra controllers), but I still think that there will be enough new Wii owners snapping up SSBB that will buy Wii Play.
The interesting thing is that sales of Wii Play is affected by sales of other multi-player games. As evident in June, sales of Wii Play increased as gamers buy MP8.
I think Wii Play sales will continue to grow strong. The main selling point of Wii Play is the controller, not the games. There won't be a Wii Play 2 as Nintendo continues to shift their focus onto first party games.
@ErikAston, Shouldn't this be up in the thousands, by now? I'm not going to use a 77% attach rate for the lifetime sales, but I don't think 40% is unreasonable, considering what it is. VGChartz has it as a 41% attach [3.93/9.36].
Either this is undervalued, or the Wii is overvalued. Probably a little bit of both, but even if the Wii is overvalued by half, this is still undervalued.
Even if the Wii sells 50 million, and Wii Play has a 25% attach rate, it's still 12.5 million units. I think there's another couple hundred dollars to go until this thing gets close to where it should be.
According to the recently released NPD data, Wii Play was the #2 game of June in the USA, selling 293K copies on 382K Wii's sold. That's an attach rate of nearly 77%.
I can't possibly imagine Nintendo replacing a controller pack-in that has a 77% attach rate in its 5th month of release.
There is one scenario where the price of this stock will fall. And that's if more one player games are released. If that's the case, then gamers won't need the extra controller.
However, looking at the game line up for Nintendo, that is unlikely.
So all in all, Wii Play will continue to sell well into the foreseeable future.
You missed the point of my post entirely. I'm in full agreement that this game will continue to sell extremely well. Earlier in this post, people were projecting lifetime sales of this games, and assumed the current attach rate would remain the same throughout the entire lifetime of the Wii. I was merely suggesting that the stock could be skewered by any number of thigns, all of which would immediately cause this stock to plummet. The value of this stock is in the controller, not the game, and thrives on being the only game to come with a controller. However, no new news about any similar game coming out is definitely a good sign for this stocks future. That said, I still think it's extremely naive to think that the attach rate this game has had, will continue throughout the lifetime of the Wii.
@SERAPHRowen, Would you rather have a controller or a Controller & a free game? Personally, i would rather have something free with my controller, regardless if it was a crap game. A free crap game is still a FREE crap GAME.
Burger king games are practically free with a value meal and they sold millions of those games.
America and especially americas youth love FREE things. FREE will perk up the ears of any american to see if they want it or not. Not sure about the rest of the world.
I just dont get how you can argue that a controller with a free game is better than just a controller. Personally, i would buy 4 and give the games to my friends or sell them on ebay for a couple of bucks.
Well, E3 brought no news so far that suggests Wii Play might be followed up by some another game with Wiimote pack in anytime soon, so it is pretty much 100% certain this game will keep selling at a high rate all of 2007. Since it is currently around 4M already, selling between 6-8M at the end of the year seems to be a certainty. Then including the upward potential for the years after 2007 means this game is way undervalued at the moment, and I personally think this game should be 10M expected lifetime WW sales at the moment.
I don't know why many traders here doubt that this game will continue to sell. The game is only $5 if you think about it. People who are going to buy this console will want a controller so they can play both 'casual' and 'hardcore' multiplayer games. As long as there is no announcement of Wii Play 2 (unlikely) or a controller bundled with a game like Smash Bros. (also unlikely), there really is no place for this stock to go but up.
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