Currently the NPD future for October calls for about 354K sales of Wii Play. In September it sold 243K, so this would be an 46% increase with one less week of sales. Seems pretty unlikely to me.
If the ratio of systems sold to Wii Play was the same as September, 354K Wii Plays would translate to a full million Wii sales in October, which is both quite unlikely and way above what simExchange currently predicts (694K).
I notice Wii Play recently dropped a few hundred. Unless this was just some random person going for some liquid money (I know I've done this before), perhaps the announcement of Wii Sports Resort makes some people think Wii Play's importance will be lessened? But as long as Resort just comes with the MotionPlus and Play continues to come with the Remote, I don't see them harming each other.
It's at 9.23m by the end of 2007 and will sell extremely well until Wii sells well. Without a doubt it will sell the most amongst Wii softwares. With an attach rate of about 45% (9.23/20.13) atm, you know when Wii sales reach 60m this game will be at more than 25m for sure.
I say they only bundle in a new one, if the old one stops selling. Why giving away a new game for $8 if you can do it with a old one? In matter of revenue, its better to stick to that, what sells. In other words:
@JoshuaJSlone, More importantly, I think is this: even in the highly unlikely event a Wii Play 2 is released, the reality is this game will continue to sell because of the value added by the extra game. If someone is buying a Wii, they're probably going to end up buying multiple controllers, which still makes this an attractive buy for consumers.
@lstormy10, Why have them buy a budget title rather than forcing them to buy it with a wiimote? Easy. They can make more from selling a $20 or $30 game than just as a $10 surcharge on a wiimote. They can sell it to more people since not everyone will be willing to put up with a forced bundle, especially if they've already got a full set of controllers.
Wii Play is in a unique position for being something extremely simple that they'd already created, that just wasn't worth selling on its own. Something so low-scale again would probably be used as a WiiWare title, and not make as much sense to pack in with a wiimote as a set of controller tech demos.
@JoshuaJSlone, @Just_Ben, I merely suggested Wii Sports 2 as a type of game that they could possibly bundle with a Wii-mote (as it would be a good fit). Other good fits for bundling with a Wii-mote include things like Wii Music (basically any cheaper Wii games that would not be that great of sellers for full price titles).
Also, Nintendo is a business that enjoys (and almost always in recent quarters) making profits. Another game that could only be bought with a Wii-mote would be a great idea if that game would only otherwise be released as a budget title. Why have a consumer only pay a budget price for a title instead of having them have to pay a full $50 for a bundle pack that is easy to justify over buying just a Wii-mote?
Obviously nothing is definitely inevitable (I should have used a better term), but there is a high chance that Nintendo could release another title bundled with a Wii-mote during the lifespan of the Wii - as early as this year. If Nintendo were to release another title in this manner, the sales of Wii Play most certainly take a hit from not being the only title bundled with a Wii-mote - this is why I would be cautious about predicting the sales of Wii Play through the rest of the Wii's lifespan without taking into account this good possibility.
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If the ratio of systems sold to Wii Play was the same as September, 354K Wii Plays would translate to a full million Wii sales in October, which is both quite unlikely and way above what simExchange currently predicts (694K).