@apujanata, I also don't like to rely on VGC numbers - I treat them as just another prediction, nothing more. However, in this case I think there is enough data from other sources to push the price down.
US: Unknown number in its first week, then 24k over the course of the next month. (NPD, reported here.) Japan: Charted at 36 in its first week then dropped out of the top 50. First week sales of 6k. (Media Create.) UK: Failed to make the top 50 DS games. (Chart Track, see previous post.)
It's been proven that VGC can be massively off, particularly during the first month (before they can adjust their numbers to match more credible sources) and for small games. NG:DS is certainly a small game, but VGC is not working totally blind this time because US NPD numbers were available for it thanks to this site. For that reason I'd expect their estimate to be more accurate. That NPD number is key - without it I would not be confident in shorting this. Sales in Japan are likely so low that it hardly matters, but 20k seems fair based on the Media Create numbers.
I guess what I'm saying here is that although I dislike VGC, in this case I agree with them.
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I also don't like to rely on VGC numbers - I treat them as just another prediction, nothing more. However, in this case I think there is enough data from other sources to push the price down.
US: Unknown number in its first week, then 24k over the course of the next month. (NPD, reported here.)
Japan: Charted at 36 in its first week then dropped out of the top 50. First week sales of 6k. (Media Create.)
UK: Failed to make the top 50 DS games. (Chart Track, see previous post.)
It's been proven that VGC can be massively off, particularly during the first month (before they can adjust their numbers to match more credible sources) and for small games. NG:DS is certainly a small game, but VGC is not working totally blind this time because US NPD numbers were available for it thanks to this site. For that reason I'd expect their estimate to be more accurate. That NPD number is key - without it I would not be confident in shorting this. Sales in Japan are likely so low that it hardly matters, but 20k seems fair based on the Media Create numbers.
I guess what I'm saying here is that although I dislike VGC, in this case I agree with them.