@Powertrade, I think that there's a lot of overlap between Mass Effect and BioShock, but that Mass Effect has a lot more upside in that Star Wars people (like me) are more likely to pick it up just based on positive past associations with BioWare. Whereas BioShock suffered with comparisons to Halo (regardless of how accurate those comparisons were), Mass Effect is getting called the next level in BioWare's developmental evolution. I don't think that 3 million is under-rated. We're predicting a million in sales for the first two months; personally, I think it'll be much much higher than that. I don't think it's unreasonable for the first part of a trilogy from a well known AAA production house to sell 3 million copies.
There seems to be a lot of buying inflation across the board recently. Mass Effect appears to be a title that has been suscepted to this. I am doubting this will sell over 3 million copies given how BioShock (a true AAA quality title) lost legs a month after launch. There is sufficient risk in this stock that the forecast should be discounted below 3 million.
Possibly, but sometimes I use my time trust to buy stock in a game, then turn around and sell it immediately. If many people were to do this because they saw the game was being traded a lot already or if it was a top gainer/top loser on the front page, then it is very possible that there could be jumps in the price.
Fable sold 2.6 million on XB1. Oblivion was also available for PC & released to a small 360 userbase. Mass Effect is a 360 exclusive & releasing in the holidays. It will receive the marketing muscle of MS, who also published Fable. Bioware is known to be an Xbox rpg staple.
Isn't the Elder Scrolls series more known to the PC community? And didn't the 360 version come out at the same time as the PC version?
The way I see it is that Bioware has made a market on the Xbox with their previous titles, and because this game will be exclusively be released on the Xbox 360 (at least for launch), the lifetime sales can reach the predicted price.
And if we are going to use history to plan the future, you can look back and see that KOTOR (made by Bioware as well) set a sales record for the original Xbox of selling 250k in 4 days. This was of course back in July of 2003. Another report I found on IGN says it continued to soar to 600k by October of the same year. This was of course before it had a chance to hit Platinum where it sold more.
Now, those numbers might not be near the 2.5 million we are predicting now. But, think of how new the idea of a RPG was on the console at the time. There was Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest as you pointed out, then there were the imitators. But in 2003 when the Xbox had so few consoles sold it was hitting 600k. Now, with an install base of over 6 million in the US, you can count on that number at least tripling. But, they have won awards at E3 and other gaming expos, they have impressed a lot of gamers, it is just another one of the very highly anticipated games of the year, and on top of that I am sure it will have a very aggressive ad campaign.
As I stated before, I am not saying this game is going to come out and be 10/10. But I am expecting it to reach at least 9/10 (editor's choice). And I am not saying for sure it will reach 3 million life sales, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised with the hype it has been getting by the media.
@justcrim, RPGs are never as accessible as shooters to the larger gaming market. The only RPGs I know that sell millions of copies are the Final Fantasies and Dragon Quests of the world, and this doesn't happen on the Xbox 360. I just don't think the installbase of RPG gamers is there on the 360. Look at Oblivion, didn't that only sell like 1.5 million copies?
Bioware has a large following, and makes great RPG games. This game has made a lot of promises, and if they are successful in delivering, I truly believe 3 million is totally capable.
Bioware's RPGs on the Xbox were very successful, and have a large following. People are preying for the day they announce KOTOR 3. But this game is suppose to be like 5 KOTOR worlds in 1 game with just total openness and a combat system that is real time but still within the RPG world. It promises to revolutionize interactions with NPCs.
Now I am not saying this game will get 10/10 scores. But if it delivers on the promises, I know it will definitely give Halo 3 and Bioshock a good run for GOY.
@BadApple, this forecast is indeed quite astronomical. We are currently forecasting this game to womp on Oblivion sales, which happens to be one of the best RPGs ever made. RPGs on the Xbox 360 just don't sell 3 million copies...or even 2.
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I think that there's a lot of overlap between Mass Effect and BioShock, but that Mass Effect has a lot more upside in that Star Wars people (like me) are more likely to pick it up just based on positive past associations with BioWare. Whereas BioShock suffered with comparisons to Halo (regardless of how accurate those comparisons were), Mass Effect is getting called the next level in BioWare's developmental evolution. I don't think that 3 million is under-rated. We're predicting a million in sales for the first two months; personally, I think it'll be much much higher than that. I don't think it's unreasonable for the first part of a trilogy from a well known AAA production house to sell 3 million copies.