Well I have a source that tells me it did 420-480 thousand (approx).
Call of duty something about 630-680 thousand, Halo 3 about 330-360 thousand and Rockband about 280-320 thousand. I don't know how trustworthy my contact and methods are, at least for know.
@Just_Ben, I think it depends what your approximation of US Xbox 360's vs. Global Xbox 360's is. If you think that 60% in the US is a good number, then 50 DKP is probably too high for you to be long. Personally, I think that US Xbox 360's are more than 60% of global sales, but not by a whole lot.
Secondly, it's hard to approximate what the first MSFT number means, since there is an extra week in their figures. Personally, I think the ME future will come in between 50-52 DKP. I think the MSFT numbers can be broken down by NPD period, with a close numbers between months, but more on DEC.
Ok, just a simple math thing: Microsoft Announced 1 Million sold on december 10th. 1.6 Million on Jan 4th. shouldn't that indicate a lower that 450 thousand in US for December (One week missing in Microsoft dataset)? Just a question, but if the % worldwide of us was about 60% including black Friday, shouldn't it be 50-55% in December (since Europe has a higher growth near Christmas, but no black Friday), leading to 800 to 880k total in the US, or about 300-400 thousand sold in December?
Really just a thought, maybe I do an error in my calculation.
@Just_Ben, Yeah, don't forget that US NPD Nov 07 (does not include Canada) only cover November 4 - December 1. From IGN : Mass effect is released Nov 20 in US (only 2 weeks for US), Nov 22 in Australia (not covered by NPD US), Nov 23 in Europe (not covered by NPD).
Since 1 Milion is for WW, and it is 3 weeks figure (not two weeks for NPD Nov 07), and since we are not sure whether it is shipped (usual MSFT reference) or sold to (NPD reference), it is quite dangerous to assume too high a sales # for mass effect. A lot of DKP can be burned/lost if you estimate too high.
If you assume 40% US, 40% Europe, and 20% for the remaining region (CAnada + Australia + Singapore etc), and assuming 80% of Mass Effect is done on the first 2 weeks (front loaded), and assuming that the 1 Million figure is shipped figure, not sold figure, and using 80% sold through figure, then the US figure can be only as high as = 80% (for two weeks) x 80% (convert shipped to sold) x 40% (for US only) x 1 Million = 256K.
You can change the calculation to percentage that you are comfortable with, and change your bidding / position accordingly.
@MasterTrader, I'm in the minority, from what I understand, but I absolutely hate Oblivion. I think Mass Effect is much better, from the story, to the control scheme, to the everything. I lost interest in Oblivion after a few hours, whereas I've been playing ME non-stop since it came out.
That being said, I'm not disagreeing with you. It's my understanding that BioWare games are lucky to crack 2 million copies sold. If that's true, then this is overvalued. Personally, I think this game might break the mold, but not for a while.
Didn't Oblivion only sell 1.4 million units on 360? I am hearing Mass Effect is not nearly as good, which means it's not going of have the same word of mouth that carries a game months after release. 2.2 million units seems a bit optimistic at this point.
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Well, the Rock Band number makes me think your "source" isn't VGC. Where does your person come from?