Why don't you think this game will be as popular as other titles that have as much hype as this game, like Halo 3 and WoW:BC?
Honestly I expect a large number of people to put a fair amount of DKP into this game, and all that DKP will see the price of the stock soar, just like the previously stated games did.
I do agree about the risk should this title suddenly become multiplatform. I know its most XBox360 fanboy's wet dream to have this launch on their console, but based on what I've seen from Square in recent history, I find it more likely they'll slap the Final Fantasy title onto some alternate game on another system, they seem to be doing that a lot recently, expecially with the DS and the PSP.
I don't actually consider Final Fantasy Versus a separate title. When I mentioned a new Final Fantasy being released would hurt sales of this one, I'm talking about Final Fantasy XIV.
IMO Final Fantasy Versus and Final Fantasy XIII should be the same game, since their not either Square realized the project was too big and they would have had to raise prices on the game or they decided it would be easier to make back the money spent if they split it into two games. I heard originally they were looking at doing 3 separate games (maybe if they release Final Fantasy XIII on another system this is the third part?)
Also take a look historically at sales of Final Fantasy games that are 2nd or 3rd to a console, they pretty consistently go down from the initial game launched on the system.
As far as the projected sales go, I WAS taking that into account. Notice I said that I expect 5-7 million copies of this game sold in its lifetime, but that we wouldn't see much in the beginning. I don't know when this game it expected to release, but I am pretty sure its supposed to come out sometime next year. By next year there should be a large enough number of consoles sold to sell easily 1-2 million copies of this game, but after all the Final Fantasy fans who forked out the cash for a PS3 are exhausted sales will slow until the price of the PS3 lowers to a point that casual gamers can buy the console, and then the game.
I'm not saying the game will sell 750, I'm saying the stock will rise that high for the previously stated reasons. I think the game itself will sell between 5-7 million.
Personally I wouldn't compare sales of Final Fantasy XII to this, but rather the sales of Final Fantasy X or even Final Fantasy VII, because its the first game released on a new console, people don't already have a Final Fantasy game for their PS3 and many will buy it to see the amazing new graphics and what their system can do.
If everything stays the way it is now I think 425 DKP is a fair price, and if the PS3 picks up momentum this could be worth more.
However I believe the greatest risk to this stock is not another FF game it's the possibility that the PS3 could lose exclusivity to this title. Just look at what happened to Devil May Cry 4 on the PS3. The IPO was cut by 40% upon the announcement of Xbox 360 and PC versions of DMC4.
I only wish DMC4 went live a couple days earlier so we could've had the chance to make DKP on that announcement.
I don't think a quick release of FF XIII Versus would hurt sales. It's not like they're the same game. Also a lot of people buy several games for $60 without a problem. If another FF game did come out a year later, do you think they'll be broke from buying the first? I mean seriously as long as the quality is high and the series continues to grow and maintains interest, I don't see how they could affect each other. Then you also have to consider the time it's going to take to do the Localizations for each game. Then consider that the PS3 will have price cuts over the next few years which will increase "Projected Life sales" into the 6 - 7 Mil Range easy.
750 would make it the 4th highest selling FF game ever...beating out several games on two systems that had over 100 million systems installed. That launch price is even high considering that FF12 is only at 525 and it's a well-reviewed game on the best selling home console.
This game is gonna be a system seller for the PS3, and it probably one of the few exclusive titles left on the PS3 that can be considered such, along with Gran Turismo and likely a couple others that I can't think of ATM.
This stock is definitely launching undervalued but on top of that you know that this is going to be a highly recognizable stock that many people will buy simply because they know its a good game to buy stock in, like Halo 3 and World of Warcraft Burning Crusade were.
Because this is on the Playstation 3 it might not reach the same value but its definitely going to reach at least 600 DKP, probably even 750.
As far as how many titles the game will actually sell, I think there are a number of factors that will hamper sales, among them you already mentioned the FFXIII Versus game that is also launching. This title will compete with that for sales and not everyone will pick up both, though I do think this is going to be the more popular of the two.
On top of that as long as they only release this on the PS3 sales will be lower because the PS3 is so expensive and not everyone is going to put out 600 bucks to buy the system, which may possibly be why Square is looking at making this multiplatform, I know its been mentioned in the rumor mill that it may go to the Wii, and we have definitely seen Square warm up to Nintendo recently so I find this likely.
The game looks beautiful and will hopefully do something to show off the incredible power of the PS3.
Overall I think the game will get between 5-7 million sales over its lifetime, but we probably won't see that many sales if Square launches the next FF too soon after this, I am going off the assumption there will have 2-3 years before the next one.
The PS2 sold as much in its first week as the PS3 sold in 17 weeks. They're floundering in Japan because they completely misjudged that market (or simply don't care about it). Not everyone who buys a game is a "fanboy". This game will still sell to them, but the gamers that bought it because it was a great RPG for their console of choice will not.
PS3 weekly sales right now are at such an incredibly low level. How low? The PS2 didn't sell that few units until SEVEN years after launch. The PS2 even outsold the PS3 for the first week of April. It'll take more than an RPG from a series that had about a 12% attachment rate in Japan. At this point they'd probably be over-joyed if it did as well as the PSP.
This is a system seller there is alot of FF fanboys out there you say its X amount well then dont doubt it wont again , Japan sales are floundering you know why, no Japaness flavored games they have there Gundams which they always love and thats it , When this game hits Japan I expect a huge increase in console sales just for this game alone
Final Fantasy games for the Playstation have always had 40-50% of their lifetime sales come from Japan (ranging from 2.5 to 4 million units).
The PS3 has floundered in Japan in a big way. For historical comparison:
FF7 was released 2 years into the PS lifecycle with 5 million consoles already in Japan. Also boosted system sales.
FF10 was released 1 years into the PS2 lifecycle with just under 5 million consoles installed. Impact on system sales, but much smaller.
If it's released by the end of this year, Sony will be lucky to have 2 million systems in Japan. Plus a recent interview hinted that SquareEnix may have to multi-plat to recover costs (sony exec, http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6167864.html ).
I think it's important to consider that Japanese sales could potentially be cut in half (if not more) from the usual FF sales. That would leave this game overpriced and that's not even considering how much smaller the American and European markets will be for the PS3 compared to ths PS/PS2.
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Why don't you think this game will be as popular as other titles that have as much hype as this game, like Halo 3 and WoW:BC?
Honestly I expect a large number of people to put a fair amount of DKP into this game, and all that DKP will see the price of the stock soar, just like the previously stated games did.
I do agree about the risk should this title suddenly become multiplatform. I know its most XBox360 fanboy's wet dream to have this launch on their console, but based on what I've seen from Square in recent history, I find it more likely they'll slap the Final Fantasy title onto some alternate game on another system, they seem to be doing that a lot recently, expecially with the DS and the PSP.