This game is no longer selling 75K units/month any more and sales are slowing down rapidly. It just recently topped 2 million (according to VGC, which inflates numbers as it is) - so how can the currently predicted 3.6 million copies sold me even remotely possible?
If it keeps at its current rate of slowing sales, it would take roughly 30 months to hit 3 million. That is 2.5 years.
611,000 sold in the first 2 months in US. I believe estimating this to be 50% of lifetime sales is a fair assumption considering these were both holiday months. That would put the game at 1.2 million to be sold lifetime in US.
Assuming US makes up 50% of the global sales for this title, we'd only be at 2.4 million units. Assuming US is 1/3 of the global sales, that'd put it at 3.6 million units. The GLS Stock is in between there and towards the high end.
@vGInfidel, The only thing between me and shorting this stock to 2 Million GLS is bundled.
You seem to think that bundling is unlikely. I don't agree with you there. What other game are : - first party - ground breaking - have potential to be differentiating game with X360 (PS3 main competition now), like Wii's Wii Sport ? Playing in this stock is dangerous, because of the bundling factor. Which is why I only have 2K short on it, and none of those short are invested in the below 3.5 Million price range :)
Thats frankly terrible sales, so its only done 350k in the 5 or so weeks since launch, its done about 100k in Japan and i'd estimate 300-400k in Europe so 750-850k in its first 5 weeks including big sales month of November. Yet we are still predicting over 3million, that to me does not make sense, the ONLY thing that could even justify this price is if it was bundled and that is by no means a certainty or even particularly likely, there are numerous other candidates. If i didn't already have a large amount shorted i would be going to town on this stock.
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Currently listed at about 3.1 million copies. It might sell slowly but this stock is already at par with confirmed sales....
small growth opportunity here?