The NES was 299$ Cdn when I bought it. Don't forget the US dollar was worth a lot more back then. It has seriously devalued over the years since 1980 in relation to gold/oil. How this fits into an inflation argument I'm not too sure, as I'm not an economist familiar with currencies.
I don't think disposable income has changed much however, but the amount people spend on electronics versus vacations, and other luxury items has clearly increased. I used music players and phones of examples of things that people who don't buy consoles would purchase. The PS3 is no different as its market has also grown astronomically since the 80s (along with music players and phones).
As for the Saturn, if you're comparing it to Sega's expectations of course it was a failure. It still had a loyal install base, and many successful exclusives. I think you may be confusing it with the SegaCD/32X and dreamcast. Those are spectacular failures. The Saturn still lasted 4 years, and has a large library of games an accessories (I know I own them all along with a huge library of quality imports). Doesn't sound like a failure to me compared to others in the industry.
I also note you didn't choose to debate the NeoGeo or 2600. Thats ok.
Again most of this has very little to do with the fact that people with HD tvs may choose the PS3 over Xbox and Wii as their home media center because of things like blu-ray and other features. I think these people will add at least a few hundred thousand lifetime sales to what we expect typically for a game like LBP. This combined with heavy marketing, and a strong platform (which the PS3 is shaping up to be) we could see 2-3 million easily, maybe more!
The NES was released at $199, same with the SNES. They were never MSRP anywhere near $300.
Also, increased spending on other electronics doesn't support your argument, it works against it. For the vast majority of consumers, their disposable income hasn't changed (inflation adjusted) for quite some time. If they're spending more on items like music players and phones, that's money that can't be spent on game consoles. The argument that the PS3 can be a home computer also ignores that the vast majority of computer users run a Windows platform, so the lack of that for the PS3 would eliminate that as a consideration for most consumers.
Oh and trying to argue with me over the spectacular failure of the Saturn isn't going to win you credibility points.
This chart is interesting and its not the first time I've seen it. I'm comparing the price of the 40GB model at 399 when I talk about source prices. I feel this is fair, as MOST successful consoles, don't take a significant price cut in the first 6-8 months of adoption. To accurately compare I think we need to accept 399$ as the PS3's natural price. Sony took an apple approach this generation (stick it to the early adopters?)
I also question the inflation calculations here. I bought the SNES for 230 USD in 1990. Yet apparently inflation has only accounted for 60$ USD in nearly 20 years. It seems a tad low, although I felt the NES which was 299-399$ in 1984 should be higher as well than the quoted 364$ adjusted price. I don't know for sure, but it certainly is awfully comparable to 400$ on a PS3.
You know when I was growing up spending 500$ on a Vic20: that was a luxury. In 2008, we spend 500$ on an ipod and a cellphone which we will throw away in 2-3 years. The market is just totally different, even if prices have stayed relatively the same. This was my main point.
Since we're talking about families buying LPB, I think there will be some families out there who use the PS3 as a cheap living room PC (instead of buying a wii), and may find interest in games like this.
Its not going to push this game into the 17 million zone (like everyone seems to think SSBB is heading on the same theory), but it will significantly impact sales such that a few million copies is within reach.
I'm not even going to bother with LawLdar. He's just being contrary and will say anything that suits that end: Like Blu-ray sales are incredibly low (by whose definition?), and ignoring PR statements like 87% of PS3 owners watch blu-ray movies (which of course doesn't mean people are buying PS3 solely for use as blu-ray players, but it IS a factor since its the best valued blu-ray player). Like the Neogeo and Atari 2600 and Saturn platforms weren't successful... Puhlease, just because they didn't finish first in their gens (wait, didn't the 2600 do that?) doesn't mean they weren't successful or worthy of comparison in any case.
"Being the cheapest Blu-Ray player really isn't a huge selling point. There's a reason that companies aren't releasing actual sales numbers for Blu-Ray players/discs...they're incredibly low."
Its quite well established that segment of PS3 owners that are not buying gaming software for the console...yet. One of the theories is that many people bought it as a blu-ray player. I can't believe that you simply dismiss this based on numbers you don't have. classic.
"Also, the PS3 is still one of the most expensive consoles ever, even when adjusting for inflation. No successful console has ever been priced as high as the PS3 (unless you could the Neo Geo, Saturn or Atari as successful)."
Being the cheapest Blu-Ray player really isn't a huge selling point. There's a reason that companies aren't releasing actual sales numbers for Blu-Ray players/discs...they're incredibly low.
Also, the PS3 is still one of the most expensive consoles ever, even when adjusting for inflation. No successful console has ever been priced as high as the PS3 (unless you could the Neo Geo, Saturn or Atari as successful).
[I]"The theory also said that casual only have one platform each generation .. IF the above theory is true, PS3 may never see the kind of casual owner like PS2, since the majority of casual owner already bought Wii, and do not buy second platform this gen. "[/I]
If I could respectfully disagree with this theory:
I'm of the opinion that the PS3 is the cheapest Bluray future proof player on the market at least through next holiday shopping season. THe Wii60 is often joked about but I hear average joe casual gamers at my work using the term. I think this theory is about to be obliterated.
Consumers are much different from that of 2001 or 1995:
*A home typically had one computer, and one console if at all *In today's dollars, consoles and games were expensive by comparison. (EPROM, smallers market, inflation)
This is the first generation to really take advantage of multiple PCs, and even consoles as they become more like their PC cousins. This has been widely written about in mainstream media and I think this generation is a watershed moment for the market in this regard.
Mainstream coverage of video games is now common place, consoles are more powerful, and frankly cheaper than ever considering what they can do. Indeed Nintendo has turned this generation upside down...which I think contributes to the conclusion that this generation IS different than last, especially in terms of multiple system owners.
But re:LBP there's going to be a huge marketing push behind the game, and people with kids and blu-whazzits will notice I think/hope :)
@apujanata, I was stating that the fact is that the platform that this title is being released on is will not be reaching a huge mass market like the PS2. There is of course still owners of the PS3 out there that purchase this game, but it not as many on a console with a large mass market appeal like the PS2 or Wii. This is why I said that the sales of this title count on the PS3 reaching a larger mass market appeal instead of maintaining an audience that is primarily hardcore gamers (which I do not believe will happen unlike what Sony was able to do with the PS2).
There was this theory that usually, casual only start purchasing a platform (like PS2) late into the platform life (like when PS2 was $150 or $100 in 2004 - now). With Wii, Nintendo managed to turn around the cycle, and instead of casual being the late adopter (so to speak), casual are now the early adopter of Wii.
The theory also said that casual only have one platform each generation. The have PS1, they have PS2, and it is possible that this generation, they only have Wii. There is no deny the current attractiveness of Wii for casual market. Wii Sports + all those mini-games fest really apply to casual. Also Guitar Hero III, a very good casual game.
IF the above theory is true, PS3 may never see the kind of casual owner like PS2, since the majority of casual owner already bought Wii, and do not buy second platform this gen.
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The NES was 299$ Cdn when I bought it. Don't forget the US dollar was worth a lot more back then. It has seriously devalued over the years since 1980 in relation to gold/oil. How this fits into an inflation argument I'm not too sure, as I'm not an economist familiar with currencies.
I don't think disposable income has changed much however, but the amount people spend on electronics versus vacations, and other luxury items has clearly increased. I used music players and phones of examples of things that people who don't buy consoles would purchase. The PS3 is no different as its market has also grown astronomically since the 80s (along with music players and phones).
As for the Saturn, if you're comparing it to Sega's expectations of course it was a failure. It still had a loyal install base, and many successful exclusives. I think you may be confusing it with the SegaCD/32X and dreamcast. Those are spectacular failures. The Saturn still lasted 4 years, and has a large library of games an accessories (I know I own them all along with a huge library of quality imports). Doesn't sound like a failure to me compared to others in the industry.
I also note you didn't choose to debate the NeoGeo or 2600. Thats ok.
Again most of this has very little to do with the fact that people with HD tvs may choose the PS3 over Xbox and Wii as their home media center because of things like blu-ray and other features. I think these people will add at least a few hundred thousand lifetime sales to what we expect typically for a game like LBP. This combined with heavy marketing, and a strong platform (which the PS3 is shaping up to be) we could see 2-3 million easily, maybe more!