I would doubt that Sony would allow this title to be ported. I'm not sure how it could be too advanced, the Wii has already proven it can run the Havok physics engine. I'm not familiar enough with this game to judge it's limits, but I don't see why it couldn't be ported (with less bloom!).
Also, I would pause before using raw hardware numbers to predict this game. For instance, the 360 is having a tough time selling games outside of its core sports/shooter demographic. PS3 software sales look to be quite similar so far. Just because the install base will rise from people who want to play MGS4, it doesn't mean increased Little Big Planet sales.
The ps3 was meant to market for enthusiasts but that crowd is mostly people that can't afford the system overall (college kids, etc) so this is what we see. Sony trying to reach into the kid market
All in all- the PS3 will make a jump in sales in the next two years. That I have no doubt, as everyone migrates to HD.
But currently, the PS3 is the system with the most features. Why buy a blu-ray player for upwards of $200 when they can get a great system that does it all for $600? The only reason my fam owns a ps3 is because blu ray beat out HD-DVD.
LBP will have high ps3 sales depending heavily on release date. Just another excuse for the family to get the system.
I think it can be agreed upon that the largest thing that could hurt the sales of this title as of now is the market of the PS3 and the sales numbers of PS3 hardware.
If the September release date is correct, then the months leading up to September, September, and the holiday season will be crucial to this title. In the months leading up to September, this title needs the PS3 to gather a bit more steam in hardware sales and start reaching other markets than mostly just the hardcore. In September, this title would need to be advertised well and in more than the usual gaming places - there needs to be advertisement in more mainstream places. Also, launch needs to garner a good number of sales. During the holidays, this title would need the PS3 to beat out the 360 and once again start reaching other markets other than the hardcore gamer.
All of this would add up together to make for successful sales. The only question is how successful, is September the actual release date, and will these things mentioned above actually occur (the stuff I mentioned above are not predictions, just a good hypothetical set-up that would help sales for this title).
Do you think it could be ported to Wii? It would definately put this game over the top. It seems natural for that platform, but too advanced for the console.
I still am optimistic, good games create buzz and move consoles. There are already slightly less than 10 million PS3s in the world and by the time this game comes out it will be 12-15 million.
If you can forgive my sarcasm for the sake of my point: If selling a few million of an innovative party-platformer (a combination some of the highest selling game genres ever) offering unparalleled control and creativity is not going to find its audience on the PS3, I had better just call this generation over and declare the Wii the console to rule them all because the PS3 is only good for first person wank-fests, and crappy JapanStudio downloads.
400$ just ain't what it used to be. Families will buy what's hot, and in the near-future whatever is HD. Today the handyman that came to fix my window was asking about the PS3 because he was upgrading his TV. I mean what are the odds? I'm not joking here.
I would think that LBP, while an ideal family game, won't find its audience on the PS3. If someone is looking for "family entertainment", I would think they're far more likely to go with a Wii than a PS3. The Wii offers a much larger variety of family-friendly titles, plus it has a lot of positive buzz around it. Aside from GH/Rock Band (which are both multiplat) and LBP, what does the PS3 offer for families? I suppose the extensive/impressive PS2 back catalogue, but I don't see people spending $400 for that.
Agreed, we've digressed somewhat, but for the people who haven't been following from the beginning... we're trying to frame PS3 sales to this games particular audience.
Good point about content driving HD, but I do think a lot of Americans will be upgrading their sets regardless of content or television availability. Laoldar points out we'll see the impact of this in Q2-Q3 as uneducated customers buy flatpanels for "sh*ts n' giggles" with matching consoles/next gen dvd players using their rebates.
The question at the end of the day which is difficult to answer is, we know the market is there, but will people choose PS3 with games like LBP for their family entertainment?
I hope so, I look forward to future Rock Band and LBP parties at my place. You're all invited, punch n pie. Downbidders can stay at home. :)
@zeromous, Actually only over-the-air analog television will be shut down - cable companies and the like have to provide analog broadcasts until I think 2011. The number of people who are watching over-the-air analog television is very small in the first place and the number likely to purchase "the latest in technology" out of that group is even smaller. Also, some will choose just to go with the converter box (cable boxes aren't being subsidized, converter boxes are). One last thing to mention is that many people who aren't technophiles will not even get the fact that they have to have a HD source feeding to their new HDTV to get actual HD content (this is one of the largest problems with HD - the education of consumers).
The adoption of HD in the U.S. will be driven by content and prices (for both hardware, content, and HD television services that are currently over-priced). It will not be until after 2011 that HD is in the good majority of homes.
Maybe this conversation should be moved over to the PS3 stock listing as it directly has not much to do with LittleBigPlanet.
Good point bringing up the digital signal conversion, however remember that people won't have to upgrade their TVs. They can simply get a (much cheaper) converter box. And let's face it, many families won't be spending hundreds of dollars to buy a new TV when the old one is still working. Besides, once you've spent hundreds on a new TV, will you have the budget to run out and spend hundreds more on a new gaming console? Not many would. A PS2 won't look that bad on a new flat panel TV...not if you like playing it on an old one.
Good point about the rebate cheques ($1200 per couple, along with potential bonuses for kids). This (incredibly stupid) plan doesn't start until May/June however, so don't expect it to show up in sales until after then (if it effects it at all).
Also I forgot to add re: HD televisions. American taxpayers are about to receive a 600$ rebate from their government. For everyone who doesn't have a mortgage that will buy some TV or PS3/360. Heck its almost enough for both if you buy a cheap flatpanel like I did (200$ walmart)
I've decided to take the risk in order to cash in on the inevitable hype from this game. I bought in quite low in the summer (sub 1 million) and due to its stability am on my second round of investment in this stock. I feel that the ceiling leading up to release could be as high as 400 DKP based on current levels and I'm willing to be patient with this position.
I agree the release date has a lot to do with how this game will do, but all indications are toward steady progress and a polished game released in Q3, well in time for christmas. If that changes, I'll re-evaluate my position in LBP
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I would doubt that Sony would allow this title to be ported. I'm not sure how it could be too advanced, the Wii has already proven it can run the Havok physics engine. I'm not familiar enough with this game to judge it's limits, but I don't see why it couldn't be ported (with less bloom!).
Also, I would pause before using raw hardware numbers to predict this game. For instance, the 360 is having a tough time selling games outside of its core sports/shooter demographic. PS3 software sales look to be quite similar so far. Just because the install base will rise from people who want to play MGS4, it doesn't mean increased Little Big Planet sales.