Nope, I have no such evidence. Purely anecdotal, based on my trawling of internet forums. Just call me Captain Speculation. I do see it continually recommended though. Perhaps the 2nd hand market might kill it's long tail though?
As for all 3 platforms, I confess utter ignorance as to the nuances of the PC market - all I know is what I've read recently about 'piracy killing the PC as a platform'. That doesn't make me bullish about PC sales, but I'm not confident of that opinion.
For 360, I'm guessing this is going to sell very well, based mostly on the community goodwill generated by Oblivion. It's already got serious buzz in the enthusiast press - it remains to be seen if that translates to mass-market sales. I fear it may get lost in the holiday deluge.
For PS3, it's more of an unknown - Bethesda have less of a track record on Sony hardware. My suspicion is that it'll have a higher attach rate on PS3, but lower sales that 360.
As for comparisons with earlier Fallout games, it's a sufficiently old IP that I'm not sure comparisons with it's previous iterations hold any water - the market landscape has changed so much since they launched.
Anyway, all just my opinion. Take from it what you will.
Could you provide recent forum post and sales data or charts that show that Oblivion is still selling in any significant numbers. While I am inclined to believe your claims, I would rather have some proof or data to confirm them. Do Bethesda games in particular have a long tail or do just their good games (or most good games in general) have long tails, that should be noted.
How do you feel Fallout 3 will perform when all three platform sales are combined? Currently we are predicting 5.84 million copies sold. I will continue to look for Fallout 1 and 2 sales to see for comparison.
I think that perhaps the 360 stock is only a tiny bit overpriced.
With refererence to Oblivion, that game has legs. It not only got a re-release in the Game Of The Year edition, but is *still* a game that's people recommend in response to the eternal "wat game shuld I bye" posts on forums across the interwebs, and is still selling with a budget price tag on it.
I see no reason why Fallout won't be building on that success, and following suit with a GotY rerelease for the 2009 holiday season. While the stock price seems high for a traditional sales curve, the Bethesda games have a much longer tail, if I don't miss my guess.
It seems that either no one read this post or no one has a counter to the argument. Considering the movement of this stock, I would bet on the former. Can anyone provide a reason why this stock is so high? Do you have sales data for the PC versions or do you believe that a RPG being released on three platforms will sell over 3 million copies on the Xbox 360 alone?
Is it reasonable to expect Fallout 3 on the Xbox 360 to outsell the PC version by nearly x2.5 when the PC is the native platform for the franchise and we have been proven wrong several times (ie Crysis and S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl) that PC gaming is not dead, just thatAmerica does not account for as large a percentage of sales. Either the PC stock is highly undervalued or the Xbox 360 stock is overvalued. It is probably a combination of both. For a RPG being released on three different platforms, which contain the same audience to some degree, either by PS3 w/ PC, PS3 w/ Xbox 360 or PC w/ Xbox 360 or all three, this stock (the Xbox 360 version) seems overvalued.
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion released during a time when there were few good Xbox 360 games (and nearly no good RPGs for the Xbox 360), so it was able to benefit from a relatively blue ocean. On the other hand Fallout 3 will be released in a relatively red ocean, though that ocean is larger than the one Oblivion occupied.
This stock is overvalued, as I doubt an RPG (that is not a platform exclusive ala Final Fantasy) will be able to command enough of an audience on all three platforms to push one single platform to over 3 million in sales, while leaving the other two platforms, one of which is growing in popularity worldwide and the other with a much larger install base than the Xbox 360, to sell nearly a third less.
I agree, Bioshock was released only on the Xbox360 and PS3 yet it it still is having a hard time reaching 2 million on the Xbox360. Fallout 3 is being released on the PC, Xbox360 and PS3, so I would think that sales on the Xbox360 would be lower than Bioshock's to account for this.
How much is this franchise still in the collective conscious of the gaming public today? Are we overestimating how many people still respect and keep awareness of this series?
@DrPirate, if Fallout 3 "might just rival BioShock" then hitting 2 million sales is not that easy. BioShock is having trouble making that momentum to reach those numbers. 2 million is actually a difficult benchmark and not that many games hit those kinds of numbers on a single platform. This game is coming out on PC and I think PS3 as well.
I cannot wait to see more of this game. This looks like it might just rival Bioshock in terms of atmosphere and detail in both environments and playability.
I don't see the stock just took a massive hit. -10%? What happened the lifetime sales of this game will easily, easily, easily see 2 million sales on the 360.
3
@ Gaara
Nope, I have no such evidence. Purely anecdotal, based on my trawling of internet forums. Just call me Captain Speculation. I do see it continually recommended though. Perhaps the 2nd hand market might kill it's long tail though?
As for all 3 platforms, I confess utter ignorance as to the nuances of the PC market - all I know is what I've read recently about 'piracy killing the PC as a platform'. That doesn't make me bullish about PC sales, but I'm not confident of that opinion.
For 360, I'm guessing this is going to sell very well, based mostly on the community goodwill generated by Oblivion. It's already got serious buzz in the enthusiast press - it remains to be seen if that translates to mass-market sales. I fear it may get lost in the holiday deluge.
For PS3, it's more of an unknown - Bethesda have less of a track record on Sony hardware. My suspicion is that it'll have a higher attach rate on PS3, but lower sales that 360.
As for comparisons with earlier Fallout games, it's a sufficiently old IP that I'm not sure comparisons with it's previous iterations hold any water - the market landscape has changed so much since they launched.
Anyway, all just my opinion. Take from it what you will.