@Alpha, I believe this will be one of the Wii's best selling titles this year. It combines the star power of Nintendo & Sega's most famous characters in a game approachable to casuals and the hardcore. IMO this is still undervalued.
@ErikAston, this isn't a stock I have been following yet, but the general trend appears the shorters are finally directing their attention to unreleased games.
Since the automated market maker was fixed a few months ago and shorting to more realistic prices became more possible, people have focused on shorting older games that had their stock prices artificially inflated for too long. This was the easy money. Many of these games have now been delisted and capital has been freed up. People are now refocusing their attention to unrelased games that have gone unchecked for a while.
Just looking at the Mario & Sonic stock chart, this stock has basically been on a buying streak. Many unreleased games have had streaks of up days which are most likely due to low volume buying. I am suspecting that stock prices for unreleased titles will be coming down soon as shorts finally start looking at these, rather than shorting low-profile DS games and movie ports.
I don't know about this game specifically, but I do know that selling millions of copies is a rare thing; however, you would not know this from looking on the simExchange as it seems people here tend to be very optimistic about game sales in general. As people see more NPD data, I think we will become more realistic of how games sell. Few games even break 1 million unit sales.
I think a forecast of 2 million makes sense for this game. The mini-game game market is overloaded for Wii, but the trend so far has been for games with established mascots like Rayman Rabbids, WarioWare and Mario Party to have very impressive sales (1M, nearly 2M, and an eventual 3M, respectively). The previews for the game are very positive (even winning Leipzig Wii game of show over Mario Galaxy as mentioned below) so I don't think sales will be stalled by quality issues.
I encourage people to buy this stock back up to where it was.
Question: Does anyone else feel this is undervalued? I have stock in it and that may be why I feel like this. I'm curious to what anyone else thinks about this stock.
One more thing. The game features fencing as one of the events. If they do a decent job it will be the first good sword fighting game on the Wii, there is at least potential for that.
Honestly I'm not sure, its being released at the right time to hit the attention of the Olympic Crowd, it will draw the Mario and the Sonic fans (Yes there are still Sega fanatics running around) and people who are excited about doing athletic stuff on the Wii will probably buy it.
It will be interesting to see how this stock performs but I don't see any reason it couldn't hit 1 million sales, especially at the rate the Wii is selling.
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