@kspraydad, Yeah, Activision's numbers do not make any sense. The only way I could see for their numbers to be correct is if they were only counting the specific installed base of where they are releasing the DS and this does not include all of the Americas and/or all of Europe.
If they are only talking US and EU I'd like to point out then the discrepency between Activision and VG Chartz.
VG currently lists non Japan DS penetration as 49.95 million while Activision is talking 'over 41 million'.
For sake of argument that is 42/50 = or a 16% overestimate of the installed base (I would tend to think that Activision would have a publisher's knowledge of what the true install base is)
Are there official Nintendo stats that will clear this up?
Activison only focus on western markets so that is why they only mention size of install base in those markets. I do not think Guitar Hero has been successful in Japan, they just released the same game as in US with same songs, both PS and Wii versions were released there.
If after reading Just_Ben explanation in this topic and other topic (Wii) you still believe that the supply will NOT be there, then we should just agree to disagree on this one. You should keep shorting Wii Feb, while I should keep on buying Wii Feb.
Where do you get those figures? Do you have an Insider? Or do you figured them out by yourself?
They always said they produce more than 1.8 Million/Month. Most likley 2. I don't believe they stockpile for Christmass already, they will up production in the next fiscal. If they stockpile, they take it from there.
They want to know where demand is, they need to know,normally.
So I say they have 450k at least to ship every single week. Either you explain to me, why the US, Nintendo biggest market is getting less than 1/4 of this units, or I still believe that in Feb. the Wii will do 450k+ in the US.
I personal was right since 4 month running on Wii supply, and don't know what I should make wrong.
The only thing I fear is that Nintendo is hitting the point where supply>demand. In that case not all of the shipped units will be sold.
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http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ds/dsi.html