I assume you are speaking of the GLS stocks for DMC4, not the consoles. The NPD data certainly points to weaker demand for DMC4 on 360 relative to PS3. If the GLS stocks were priced accordingly to match the expectations of these futures, then long the DMC4 (PS3) stock and short the DMC4 (Xbox 360) GLS stock may be a play. However, I have found that the NPD Futures and the GLS stocks are not always inline with their expectations.
I'm inclined to guess Europe a bit higher as it charted well in the UK. Lost Planet was a big success with the early release over here and the £10 price difference from most other releases (on the 360 version) will have given it a boost.
I'm inclined to agree with you on the PS3/360 split as well, I'm short on the PS3 future. I don't think it'll break 300k
in the uk the 360 version was 62% the PS3 version was 26% as far as I remember. Thats one why. The install base, is another why. The 360 has a far greater install base in the US than the PS3. No way the software sales on a multi platform game are the same.
In the past, the PS3 had around 1/3 of the 360 version on different games. That means on "normal" games, the PS3 version gets around 25% of the sales. So I already did go higher on the PS3 share.
I personal can't believe they are so head to head in the states. Europe, yes, U.S. no.
Why not have the same % between 360 and PS3, since this series was originally an exclusive on PS brand platform, and this is the first time it show up on non-PS3 platform ?
And why such a big disrepancy between 360 and PS3 ? Even if you wanted to put 360 at higher #, using 60:40 or 55:45 is much more reasonable. What game you use as benchmark to arrive at that figure ?
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Yes...speaking of the game on the console not the console itself!
I'm thinking a little nibble on the PS3 Long might be in order and some shorting on the Xbox.