Molyneux's mental approach makes me think of Nintendo's success of the Wii. And his design approach for Fable 2 makes me think of The Sims.
First, his mental approach. Simplification = more accessibility. He had a lesser known keynote speech in August '06 about a control scheme using lesser buttons. It's already proven a simple control scheme opens the game up to a larger audience.
As for his design approach. He is focusing on something that peaks the interest of females: love.
All of this could mean Fable 2 will be set up for a larger, untapped market a la the Wii and The Sims.
P.S. Even though, in his keynote speech, he insists the demonstration is not for a Fable game, his concept certainly spells his intentions.
fable is a brand, a very marketable brand. this is the type of game that has a big initial fan base that will buy the game immediately, but also due to name recognition will last and be one of those games that people just see in a store when they have nothing new to play and just pick up ... a long lasting game with microsoft marketing behind it ... my guess, 3.5 million +
I think that many people will be reluctant to pre-order this game, due to the problems involved with Fable, but I believe you're under estimating the Fable fan base.
While I agree with everything you've said I think there are still plenty of people that bought the original that will race out to get their hands on the sequel (myself included). Molyneux is brilliant at hyping up games and getting people as excited as he is about them which will lead to plenty of pre-orders and even more after release sales.
As I said above I think pre-orders will be lesser than the Fable pre-orders but the after release sales will make up for it. Ultimately all Fable 2 has to do is be a longer game than Fable and people will buy it, I really think Fable 2 will have legs and I won't be surprised if this game reaches the 4 mil that panzil has predicted.
I don't think this game will sell as well as the first one because of how much hype the first one didn't deliver on. I have two friends who both pre-ordered Fable 1 thinking it was gonna be awesome then they got it talked about it for three days then stopped because they'd finished it, and I think a lot of the people who bought the first one would've been like them and probably won't buy the second.
So according to the numbers that Starless thew-out (thanks btw) it would not be surprising to see Fable 2 sell to 10% of all XBOX360 owners. If there are 40 million consoles owned during the duration of Fable 2's lifespan, then we should see about 4 million copies sold.
I would agree completely with MCOBigBen on what niche this game plays to. The first Fable was admittedly short, and didn't deliver exactly what Peter Molyneux had promised, but it was still an entertaining game with (I thought) a compelling story.
In general, most game makers who make a pretty good game learn from the experience and improve on any sequals. Just look at how Elder Scrolls games have evolved from Arena to Redguard all the way to Oblivion.
I am guessing Fable2 will at least match sales from the first game (2.6 mil from what Starless said) so right now we're a little underpriced.
On one hand, it is one of very few RPGs for the XB360 and it is a sequel so it will have returning fans as well as new converts.
On the other hand, it could screw up big time by being too short like its predecessor. I know plenty of people who were upset when they bought the first one for $50 at launch and found out it was only about 15 hours long.
I would take a wait and see approach. I have a feeling this stock is overvalued and will decline over time, but who knows?
Would love to buy it and it will do well not sure if it will do this well though.
The game is shaping up well and definately looks like a worthy addition to the genre for the 360 at any rate.
On the fence on this one. I will wait and see how it sells although with the likes of HL2 being still undervalued on both the 360 and PS3 I am likely to put my DKP into that tbh.
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First, his mental approach. Simplification = more accessibility. He had a lesser known keynote speech in August '06 about a control scheme using lesser buttons. It's already proven a simple control scheme opens the game up to a larger audience.
As for his design approach. He is focusing on something that peaks the interest of females: love.
All of this could mean Fable 2 will be set up for a larger, untapped market a la the Wii and The Sims.
P.S. Even though, in his keynote speech, he insists the demonstration is not for a Fable game, his concept certainly spells his intentions.