Good find Gaara, it just highlights the difficulty we face with some PC games. Looking at the increase in users since my post back in January an additional 27k of new accounts have been created which is a marked slow down but still backs up the article.
I think the game will still creep into the 30DKP range although I am not so sure it will manage 38DKP as currently projected though.
We're excited to see that some four months after its #1 debut in the United States, Enemy Territory: QUAKE Wars is still falling up and down the NPD PC Top 10 sales charts. Most recently, ETQW claimed the #7 spot for the week of January 26, besting several competitors that hit the market more recently, including Crysis, Unreal Tournament 3, and The Orange Box.
The Game is available not only via normal retail outlets but also Steam. This alone means you are unlikely to ever get any realistic sales analysis from any one source other than the publisher which to date they have not published.
The only stats I can lay my hands on would be 231,000 players via the official stats pages. The beta game allowed you to link a player to an account. Whilst this is not necessarily a sales figure this number has grown by 30k over the last 2 months and as the standard ET game is still more popular than ETQW I still expect further growth as more are converted. ET series are reasonable complex games that require time and effort although this means a slower uptake it normally transfers into a loyal following with a slow conversion process.
These types of game mature and develop strong communities and this game looks no different with what looks like a good clan community. For this reason alone I would revise my estimate of lts to 30dkp believing that this game has already hit the 20dkp mark.
Oh and Gaara42 the use of the "We" was valid as this was based on what we (the community) know not on my opinion. We know that we have no solid sales figures, We know this game is available via Steam and I hope we know from experience that games of this type sell over longer periods of time as opposed to single player only game.
Looking at Unreal Tournament's sales of 33,995 or 3.39DKP, it seems that the online focused shooter market is not as strong as expected. Due to this I think the current stock price is still a bit unrealistic at 26DKP. As I said before (look at previous for links to other post explaining why this game is overvalued) this game should be at most 20DKP.
Don't ever use 'we'. That assumes that what you say is fact or that others who are reading your post agree with you automatically.
Until I see some sort of data to back up the claims you continue to make, I will continue to use actual data provided by NPD Group that backs up the case that this game was a flop. 18,000 sales in its first month, of a hardcore PC game no less (people who buy these types of games usually do so on day one). Various other points have been made in these post: 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
Due to concrete data and various other reasons stated above, this game should be at most 20DKP.
As you know we have little or no evidence of sales outside of the latest NPD figures. We have no evidence of sales in Europe other than placing in various charts.
What we do know is this game is available via Steam. We also know that a lot of the target audience are also on Steam.
So currently the only numbers we have are retail. They will not include online sales via the Steam network and they will be substantial.
We also know by experience that this type of game will be around for a while giving the product a slow burn effect on sales.
Bottom line is I do believe this game will sell lifetime 50dkp as insane as it sounds.
Games are almost always frontloaded to some extent. After 18,000 copies sold in its first month, you think it will sell 500,000 to 750,000 in its lifetime? I'm sorry, but that's insane.
Wikipedia says that the game was released in the EU back on September 28th. Where are the sales numbers? If you can show that EU sales numbers were dramatically higher, then you can argue that the lifetime stock should be higher.
Oh, and I have been bidding up your comments, not down.
You asked for evidence of PC gaming within Europe I showed you that PC gaming is very strong and that in fact it may even be stronger than the US.
If you choose to ignore this matter and concentrate on other things them fine.
I never mentioned any numbers I simply stated that that losing over 100dkp becaue the US NPD numbers did not compare with your own was completely wrong. I personally belive that the game will sell 50 to 75dkp in its lifetime.
I have this problem with lifetime figures often being abitarily based on US numbers.
I tell you that in Europe this game will do well and all I get is bid down and comments about asia and CS.
This game style is popular within Europe as are CS game styles. The countries that like games like this include UK, GE, NL amongst others. Just becaue we do not produce NPD sytle numbers is not a reason for a game to go from 130+ dkp to 24dkp as it did today.
It's also competing with games like Team Fortress 2, Unreal tournament, Call of Duty 4...it sold less than 20,000 in its first month, but you still think it can move over a million copies worldwide? Why would European tastes be that different?
Also, since you mentioned CS, doesn't that show a perference for more realistic shooters, not a team-based "us vs the aliens" game?
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I think the game will still creep into the 30DKP range although I am not so sure it will manage 38DKP as currently projected though.