I wonder why this stock has gone up instead of going down (since May 23) ? especially with the figure from Square Enix directly contradicting our prediction ?
Good catch. Sales have been quite low and there's no way that this title is going to move another 200,000 units. I think this price should be closer to 70DKP.
@Joe80, It is a little bit hard to explain this through writing, if you didn't catch my explanation the first time.
Since this is not an important issue, let's just agree that VGC differ significantly from NPD, and leave it at that (it is not important whether it is 35% off or 53% off, since 35% is already a big percentage)
@apujanata, I'm not great in math, but didn't you divide how much VGC overvalued compared to NPD. If you want to find the error between NPD and VGC, don't you want to divide the sales from each, not the # for the difference between NPD and VGC?
They overvalued by 35% in comparison to NPD's #. 102,903 is 35% more than 67,300, not 53% more. So they were off by 35% right? Sometimes VGC is off by this much, sometimes more, sometimes less, sometimes very close to NPD.
I'm pretty sure dividing against the NPD# is the proper way.
percent error = (predicted - actual)/actual
Anyways, I try to check VGC numbers whenever I make a decision, but it's blindingly obvious that what they're doing is just a notch above a guessing game. It would be nice if they could get a few more solid partners to shore up their predictions. I'm sure it can't be easy to even get as close as they do.
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I wonder why this stock has gone up instead of going down (since May 23) ? especially with the figure from Square Enix directly contradicting our prediction ?