I agree, this game can probably do 400,000 in the US and 200,000 in the EU or at least sell more copies in the US/EU combined than Japan (which I think will top out at around 550,000). From this it should be at around 1.15-1.3 million copies over its lifetime (115-130DKP). I think when the stock was in the 350DKP range it was overvalued, but it shouldn't be below 1 million copies sold (100DKP).
And once again... Time to point out that this stock is STILL a sell!
VGChartz says 8 weeks in Japan = 463K / 7K weekly. It will still have legs, will have some holiday bumps... The western release will tack on a bit. But reaching 1M sold seems pretty doubtful now. Let alone 1.7M.
Chris Kohler addresses the pros and cons of Dragon Quest Swords as he makes his way through the recent Japanese release. "The first-person sword-swingin' gameplay is as fun as it was at Square Enix Party, but actually getting it home and playing all the modes reveals quite a few flaws that weren't apparent (or were easy to gloss over) in May. Keep reading to find out what I like, what I don't, and what I think they should do about it."
All sources show the second week of this game plunging after the strong start. VGC put it at 65k for the second week, and 376K total.
There are rumors that this is due to Enix underestimating the demand, creating shortages of the game. As such, the third and fourth week of sales may hold up very well.
However, I don't think there's anything indicating the game will sell 1.9M. If the above-mentioned rumors are true, sales are a bullish sign for Enix, who seemed to expect maybe 500K lifetime sales. Clearly 750K is now probable, and with an American release, over 1M WW is possible.
But this stock is still in the state its been since IPO: overvalued and falling frustratingly slow.
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker remains a good precedent. It sold over 600K in its first week in Japan, and could possibly climb towards 2M sales WW. Swords may follow the same trends at half the volume, moving towards 1M sales.
Historically, Dragon Quest games sell most of their copies in their first month of release (the games in those links sold 70-90% of their totals in their first month of sales). This game is a spin off, so it will probably sell less of its total in its first month of sales, I would guess something like 60-70% in its first month."
I think today's increase was unjustified. A 300K first week wasn't a bullish sign, in my opinion, and the stock price should probably drop down to where it was yesterday. I know to most people 300K sounds like a fantastic first week that will undoubtedly lead to fantastic lifetime sales (which is why I liquidated my short position in this stock last week ;) ), but I don't think this is the case for DQ: Swords.
I think Japan has a tendency of selling huge in the first week, and then dies down in the weeks after. To really determine this game's true potential, I think we need to see what the sales figure are like in the next couple of weeks.
If it holds up, then yes, it will probably make a million or so. But my experience tells me that sales will drop fairly quickly.
@jameseyryan, Media Create, which is definitely more reliable, has this game's first week at 305,000. Link It's debuted at number 1 this week by the way.
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I agree, this game can probably do 400,000 in the US and 200,000 in the EU or at least sell more copies in the US/EU combined than Japan (which I think will top out at around 550,000). From this it should be at around 1.15-1.3 million copies over its lifetime (115-130DKP). I think when the stock was in the 350DKP range it was overvalued, but it shouldn't be below 1 million copies sold (100DKP).