I agree with both ErikAston and Starless, this game should be sitting around 200DKP. First this game is an on-rails type game with light RPG elements, so it might be received even worse in Japan since it is not a traditional RPG were you control the movements of your character while adventuring. (If anyone can find an on-rails console game that has sold over a million copies, that would help in analyzing how this game will do). Also, as Starless pointed out, the Wii (and Nintendo) are not known for RPGs, so I don't think there would be a lot people who want an RPG buying the Wii, there is a much better selection to be found on both the Xbox360 and PS3.
This game probably won't sell 5 million because, like Starless and ErikAston said, there is no precedent, even on systems which had a much larger install base when the game was launched (such as Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker, look at Starless's post for more detail).
Looking at that list, you can see no Dragon Quest spin-off game has got close to 5 million in sales (Dragon Quest Monsters for the Gameboy is the best-selling Dragon Quest spin-off and it only sold about 2.35 million copies). There is no reason why this spin-off, which is on the Wii, a console that is not supposed to appeal as much to the kind of people who would buy this game, should reach anywhere near 5 million sold. I think this game will probably sell around 2 million, and even that may be optimistic.
Historically, Dragon Quest games Dragon Quest games sell most of their copies in their first month of release (the games in those links sold 70-90% of their totals in their first month of sales). This game is a spin off, so it will probably sell less of its total in its first month of sales, I would geess something like 60-70% in its first month.
On 12 July, this game's Japanese release date, the Wii will probably have sold just over 3 million consoles in Japan (it's at 2.5 million and sold 56K last week). Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (DS) sold around 1M in its first month of sales on a console that had sold around 14.5M in Japan at that time.
I expect DQ: Swords to do 500K-700K in its first month of sales in Japan (though, this is an optimistic view). Factor in that this'll be about 60-70% of its total sales, and I think this game will sell around 1M in Japan over its lifetime.
Dragon Quest VIII sold around 1M copies outside of Japan.
This is on the PS2, a console that basically every JRPG fan owned. The Wii on the other hand is a mixture of Nintendo fans (a developer that makes very few RPG's), non-gamers (who bought a Wii for Wii Sports and games like it) and normal, non-Nintendo fan gamers. A lot RPG fans probably haven't made the switch to next-gen as the PS2 is still satisfying their needs, and if they do make the switch, they'll probably go for a PS3 or 360 for FF XIII, White Knight Story, Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon etc. After taking all of this into account, it is clear that the Wii isn't a console most RPG fans own. I expect DQ: Swords to sell 500K-800K outside of Japan, depending on how accepting non-RPG gamers are of the game.
So that's 1.5M-1.8M in total world-wide. Suffices to say, I think this game is very overvalued.
Talk about an overvalued IPO. 5 million copies is a realistic expectation for a main entry in the Dragon Quest series. This is a spin-off.
Dragon Quest Monsters Joker might be a good comparison. That game has already sold 1.4 million copies in Japan, and is still selling 7K a week (VGChartz). With a western release and continued Japanese sales, it could even break 2 million.
But there's no precedent for a Dragon Quest spinoff reaching 5 million in sales. If everything goes perfectly for this game, and it keeps selling week after week until the install base in Japan can support a non-Wii-brand million-seller, and the game sees decent western sales, it can break 2 million. 2 million sales would be a smashing success for this game.
The preview talks about the different ways in which the Wiimote is used in the game and how the game is designed. Dragon Quest Swords is an on rails type of game, you use the B button to move forward along the path until enemies are encountered. The preview describes the different aspects of combat, such as choosing the angle of attack (up-down, left-right, diagonal) and how blocking works. This quote sums up the previewers mood toward the game: "Overall, the demo offered a good amount of fun...but it's, in its current form, a simple design that's far from a game that's going to reach classic status on the Wii system."
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This game probably won't sell 5 million because, like Starless and ErikAston said, there is no precedent, even on systems which had a much larger install base when the game was launched (such as Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker, look at Starless's post for more detail).
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=dragon+quest&console=&publisher=&sort=Total
Looking at that list, you can see no Dragon Quest spin-off game has got close to 5 million in sales (Dragon Quest Monsters for the Gameboy is the best-selling Dragon Quest spin-off and it only sold about 2.35 million copies). There is no reason why this spin-off, which is on the Wii, a console that is not supposed to appeal as much to the kind of people who would buy this game, should reach anywhere near 5 million sold. I think this game will probably sell around 2 million, and even that may be optimistic.