@Gaara42, Attach rates are all well and good, but there's other factors to consider with this game. 1) Kitsch factor. The people that buy Wii's for kitsch will buy Lego Star Wars to maximize that attribute. 2) Redesign of the Prequel Trilogy levels. As a 26 year old Star Wars nerd, replaying the PT levels after playing the OT levels was kind of a disappointment. If they do a good job making everything uniform (and there's no reason to believe they won't knock this out of the park), it'll sell like gangbusters. 3) Lightsaber controls. As awesome as this is for me (see: SW nerd), it's going to be essentially a demo for what can be done later, in more adult Star Wars games. If they can't pull it together for LEGO, they've got no shot on other games. I think a lot of people will buy it just for that. 4) Target demographic on target system. This is a game marketed to pre-teens on a system that historically has a younger base. 5) Star Wars games don't really die. As was previously mentioned, even at $50 this game will sell a lot, then it will inevitably be knocked down to $30, where it will sell more.
I think even 2 million is severely underestimating the value of this stock. I think that with the combination of Star Wars, Wii lightsaber controls, Christmas, and even half-assed marketing, this game will sell huge. When the future comes out, I'll be a size buyer. :)
The attach rate would be 4.734% (A total of 66.75 million consoles to the game selling 3.16 million (the game was not released in Japan)).
Assuming sales of 25 million Wii consoles by December 2008 that would give 1.184 million copies sold. I think though that the attach rate will be higher for this game due to the fact that the Wii seems even more focus toward the people that buy this game, but after looking at the attach rate, I'll revise my estimate to 130-140DKP as a good estimate for now.
The Wii is selling gangbusters but its going to be a long time before it is approaching PS2 installed numbers...what would the attach rate of the PS2 games be that you mentioned vs what it needs to be for Wii version to sell 2 million copies (I'll assume 25 million Wii sold by Xmas 2008?
Nice find. I have confidence in this stock, especially since this game isn't be coming to PS2 and PS3/360 are too expensive to have the player demographic this game is targeting. That makes the Wii perfectly positioned to garner the bulk of this title's sales. Furthermore, motion controls and extra levels will entice those who already own the PS2 games. The only potential risk is that it's coming out in Fall 2007 and may be drowned out by the likes of Smash Bros and Mario Galaxy, but I think the brand has shown it's strong enough to compete.
This stock seems to be sliding downwards even though the preview recently submitted are positive toward the game. I will also reiterate my previous reasons why I think this game should at least sell 1.5 million copies, if not 2 million. This game should be around 2 million, judging by past sales on the PS2. The first Lego Star Wars sold around 3.2 million copies, while Lego Star Wars: The Original Trilogy sold around 1.68 million copies. Since this will be the first Lego Star Wars for the Wii, I would assume it would have higher sales than if it was the second or third Lego Star Wars for the Wii. Add in that this game is geared toward the audience that the Wii is supposed to be reaching out toward and you have an almost assure 1.5 million, though 2 million seems like what it would end up at.
"There are lots of reasons to go nuts for a new LEGO Star Wars game. You get to run around as little plastic versions of your favorite Jedi, there's a seemingly endless amount of stuff to collect, and it's fun to use the Force. But the big selling point of LEGO Star Wars: The Complete Saga is simple; you use the Wiimote as a lightsaber. If that concept doesn't sell you on this game, you have no soul. Yes, Wii fans, all the fun of LEGO Star Wars: The Video Game (that's the one that followed the new movies) and LEGO Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy (that's the one that's pretty self-explanatory) is set to rock that white rectangle in your living room on one disc with a starship's worth of extras."
It's not quite every Star Wars fanboy's dream, but pretty close. You swing the Wii remote to slice enemies, aim blasters, and deflect incoming laser fire. The remote is also used to speed up building (by moving the remote and nunchuck up and down) and grappling (by moving the remote upwards).
This game should be around 2 million, judging by past sales on the PS2. The first Lego Star Wars sold around 3.2 million copies, while Lego Star Wars: The Original Trilogy sold around 1.68 million copies. Since this will be the first Lego Star Wars for the Wii, I would assume it would have higher sales than if it was the second or third Lego Star Wars for the Wii. Add in that this game is geared toward the audience that the Wii is supposed to be reaching out toward and you have an almost assure 1.5 million, though 2 million seems like what it would end up at.
Unfortunately that happens with lots of the IPOs. I'm going to agree with you that the stock will most definately rebound over the next week. I'll go one step further than you though and say all those 'make a quick buck' types are going to seriously loose out when this stock hits 2 million easily.
As someone who owns the DS version of Lego Star Wars 2, I can't put the game down, and I imagine Lego Star Wars:The Complete Saga will be the same no matter what platform it is on.
5
Attach rates are all well and good, but there's other factors to consider with this game.
1) Kitsch factor. The people that buy Wii's for kitsch will buy Lego Star Wars to maximize that attribute.
2) Redesign of the Prequel Trilogy levels. As a 26 year old Star Wars nerd, replaying the PT levels after playing the OT levels was kind of a disappointment. If they do a good job making everything uniform (and there's no reason to believe they won't knock this out of the park), it'll sell like gangbusters.
3) Lightsaber controls. As awesome as this is for me (see: SW nerd), it's going to be essentially a demo for what can be done later, in more adult Star Wars games. If they can't pull it together for LEGO, they've got no shot on other games. I think a lot of people will buy it just for that.
4) Target demographic on target system. This is a game marketed to pre-teens on a system that historically has a younger base.
5) Star Wars games don't really die. As was previously mentioned, even at $50 this game will sell a lot, then it will inevitably be knocked down to $30, where it will sell more.
I think even 2 million is severely underestimating the value of this stock. I think that with the combination of Star Wars, Wii lightsaber controls, Christmas, and even half-assed marketing, this game will sell huge. When the future comes out, I'll be a size buyer. :)