@argon, Given that the VGChartz estimated the number 10 position at 100k I am not positive that it is overvalued, but I am short on this stock and believe that it is overvalued, though not by enough I would feel comfortable shorting it. In general I feel that the stock is well within the ballpark of it's possible sales figure.
Yet again this game has 10 other wii games ranked higher than it on the VGChartz US weekly. I'm trying to avoid sales figures but by their estimates this has barely just cleared the current future value but that's only counting the 2 extra weeks that aren't being counted for the futures at allI think it's fairly obvious that thelifetime sales are a clear short and that these may just about hit 95/96k
You are right. It could have ranked 8th/9th/10th. It's still overvalued, wouldn't you agree?
Let's recap.. In Japan, BBA: Wii Degree sold about 130k before dropping off the top 10 and is currently completely off of the top 50, so it will probably end up at ~220k there. The current price expects this title to sell over a million copies in the U.S. & Europe. But it hasn't broken the top 7 in Canada, which usually mirrors U.S. sales.
Given these facts, I think this stock is worth at most 90DKP, possibly less depending on its NPD June sales ranking.
Canadian sales rankings are in (partial information) and BBA Wii did not chart in the Top 10. Since Canada's sales roughly mirror U.S. sales, I think it's safe to say it won't chart here either, which would make this stock highly overvalued.
They could very well be underestimating but I wouldn't think they are by much, if at all.
Not even taking VGChartz numbers but just looking at the first page of 7th July charts as an example, there are 11 Wii games there, BBA comes in ranked 10 out of 11. Theres a possibility of 11 games outselling it from its own console. All of them are only a few weeks old like this game bar Mario, Zelda, Wii play and Wii sports which is bundled.
Thinking of the style of the game, it is one that should sell well in japan as it is a "self development game" like brain training but it hasn't sold well because it's not on DS. It just isn't the type of game I can see doing well in the US for cultural reasons and ditto for Europe.
I would think our future price of 9.72 DKP isn't far off but our lifetime sales prediction of 139 DKP is way overpriced by about 40DKP. 1M sales for this game would actually be very good considering thats about 12.5% attachment rate right now on the console and it's in competition for so many other quality wii games. I think Lithium's figure below of 950k/95DKP here: http://www.thesimexchange.com/community-comment.php?id=8697 is a good optimistic outcome for this game
@Laoldar, do we have any other indicators regarding Big Brain Academy June sales other than VGChartz? They could very well be underestimating as well. I've seen their data swing either way.
However, I do remember when we forecasted Crackdown and God of War II futures, we overestimated on both (Crackdown wasn't even in the Top 10). I think in general, we (the simExchange traders) tend to over estimate on games. We can swing either way on console futures.
Here in Canada, Wii games are about $59 and DS games are about $33. New DS games used to be about $45, but the price has dropped as our dollar has nearly reached parity with the USD (though console game prices haven't moved).
This future price is a bit wacky. Vgcharts (which seems to over-estimate) has it selling about 80,000 so far with weekly sales at 15k...which means this future could be about 30% overpriced.
-1