@Mushashi, "Having many songs is less important than having popular and good songs for sales potential."
That is true is some regard - which is why the fact that GHWT is going to have DLC on the Wii is a one component of why it will perform better than Rock Band.
Also, the GHWT set will have about 20 more songs than Rock Band, along with downloadable content. Rock Band only has a disc of additional songs coming (though it's nice they're doing that much).
@pilias_simber, Let me ask you : If you are casual gamer (only have Wii, don't have PS3 or X360), and you are looking to buy "music" game for yourself on Dec 2008. You have two option : - Rock Band on Wii - GH:WT on Wii. I predicted that lots of people will go with Guitar Hero : World Tour than Rock Band Wii. On Wii, the userbase of GH vs. Rock Band is very one sided (toward GH). On X360 or on PS3, Rock Band is doing much better (compared on Wii).
I am willing to invest my money to short this thing. I now have around 3K stocks invested in this stock as short, and I am going to invest more if the price ever goes up to 2.5 Million or more.
This is one of the few stock that I feel CONFIDENT on (My other stock I categorize as possible, since the probability percentage is less than 80%).
I doubt that Rock Band will do that well on the Wii but it does have a shot. Anyone who follows gaming news will know that this version is gimped and a better version (GHWT) is coming out soon. That being said, many consumers have no clue about gaming news so many won't know about the superior GH package coming out several months from now.
I'm surprised we haven't seen Activision putting out more advertising to try and cripple Rock Band. They need to get the word out to Wii owners about guitar compatibility (why buy the RB kit when the GHWT one can support your GH3 guitar?) and features. Rock Band has been incredibly popular on the 360 (for good reason) and this could translate into Wii sales by word of mouth.
All of this is assuming that the popularity of GHIII will not increase the appetite for similar titles, much like it did on the 360 when Rock Band came out.
It will be interesting to see how the sales go down, I don't think it's quite as certain how things will go down at all.
@pilias_simber, "...relatively slow but steady sales for an extended period of time that add up to massive sales for the game."
And that is where the problem is. Rock Band only has until November to have "slow but steady sales." Guitar Hero 3 had no other competition on the Wii. Rock Band will start facing Guitar Hero: World Tour which offers everything that Rock Band offers and more come November. Rock Band will have a very hard time facing another product that offers what it has to offer, already has a fan base on the Wii, and is offering more.
@apujanata, I agree with everything you have stated and that is why I have maintained a short position in this stock for quite awhile now. From what I have seen at retail, Rock Band Wii has been sitting on the shelves and GH3 is still relatively selling well.
In addition, I would believe that most people who own GH3 will just pick-up GH: Aerosmith on the Wii if they want more songs to play instead of buying a bundle of more instruments that are not compatible and is almost as expensive as the console itself.
It's no coincidence that Activision announced Guitar Hero: World Tour for the Wii right before the launch of Rock Band on the Wii and then confirmed many must-have features for World Tour that Rock Band is lacking on the Wii (e.g. DLC, online play, compatibility with GH3 guitar, etc).
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This game could see a window of only 6 months before the newer/better version comes out...along with competition from GHWT.
I'd say this stock should take a tumble, it's dead in the water.