@ErikAston, Nov # was helped by Black Friday clearance sale, since Rock Band 2 Wii is coming, and retailer are clearing their RB Wii stock before it became outdated.
I believe that the new RB2 Wii will mean almost zero sales of this game going forward (only clearing stock sales, no new retailer order to publisher), and therefore, no big potential profit gain. Therefore, 450K for Nov and Dec is too optimistic, IMO.
Disclaimer : I have a very small (2K unit) long stock on this one, and I cashed them out today.
So this sold 165K in July, which was actually its second month of release, and it probably handily outperformed that in November, when it ranked 13th in the NPDs, and #10 Wii Music sold almost 300K.
If it averaged 75K between June, Aug, Sept and Oct, and does 450K between Nov and Dec, with July that's about the current stock price just in the US by the end of this year.
Mostly speculative numbers, so take it with a grain of salt, but I feel this is undervalued.
@mrahaju, I had already had a short position in this stock since it was at around 2.5 million and I still maintain that position.
Depending on the current price and how low you personally are willing to go, I would say that there still exists profit potential with this stock - especially if they decide to not bring it out in the other territories and it goes missing from retail in the U.S. once Rock Band 2 launches this fall.
@lstormy10, Maybe it is because of VGC data, which 274,824 at this moment, and because the investor didn't know all the factors you mentioned that will negatively impact the # ?
Anyway, this is good opportunity to do more shorting, right ?
I can't seem to figure out the reason for the jump today in this stock. All I have seen is bad news for this title's sales.
First off, Guitar Hero: World Tour and Rock Band 2 are both coming to the Wii this fall (at least in the U.S., the largest market for this title). The sales of this title before the launch of GHWT and RB2 have suffered from the announcements of new features, better instruments, and more that the upcoming titles will include because of consumers waiting until the new games are available instead of buying this title. And of course, once GHWT and RB2 launch, consumer interest in this title will almost completely wane.
Next we have the knowledge of June NPD numbers that this title failed to sale more than 259k (since #10 on the charts was at 260k).
Another factor to look at is that this title has no confirmed release for Europe or Australia and with RB2 coming down the line, the question begs why EA wouldn't just skip releasing the original RB on Wii and just release RB2 on the Wii in those territories.
@mrahaju, The cut off for NPD June Top 10 is significantly higher than May's 102K, however we can safely say that it will not reach 296K, since #10 is 260K (Indiana Jones PS2). I think we might never see the actual figure for this stock, unless some gaming site got a special permission to release the data to the market.
@apujanata, Rock Band Wii is NOT in NPD June Top 10, so I think it is safe to say that you overestimate it's June Sales (I assumed that June #10 is around 100K, like it did on May 08).
@apujanata, To elaborate a little bit more on my statement "sales should be below 1 Million" : My own prediction, using assumption of Rock Band 2 Wii release on Dec 20, 2008 (latest possible release date, IMO) : Rock Band Wii release date is Jun 22, so only 2 weeks sales are included in NPD June : Jun 08 : 237 - 296K (I assumed it is as popular on Wii as it is on X360. Note that 296K is X360 ver Nov 07 sales, which are higher than normal, hence the 237K, which is 80% of 296K) Jul 08 : 118 - 236K (assume drop off between 50% to 20%) Aug - Dec : 431K - 860K (Slight decrease of monthly sales, using value of 20% / month, offset by 50% increase in Nov and another 20% increase in Dec 08, because Dec was affected by Rock Band 2 Wii. Didn't take into consideration the fact taht Sep is a 5 week month).
Total GLS just from US : 787K - 1.4 Million. IMO, it will fall nearer to 787K than 1.4 Million. I didn't put Japan and Europe into calculation, since I don't think it is guaranteed that it will see Europe or Japan release before release of Rock Band 2 Wii. If anyone else has information regarding europe and Japan release date, please share them :).
@Laoldar, Personally, I don't see this game selling above 1 Million in less than 6 month, especially since it will be denied the holiday season (since Rock Band 2 will be out in 2008, which we can assume mean at least December 2008).
@Laoldar, You could always submit an article detailing this announcement on the Rock Band 2 page for the Wii version (since you were the first to mention the announcement).
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Nov # was helped by Black Friday clearance sale, since Rock Band 2 Wii is coming, and retailer are clearing their RB Wii stock before it became outdated.
I believe that the new RB2 Wii will mean almost zero sales of this game going forward (only clearing stock sales, no new retailer order to publisher), and therefore, no big potential profit gain. Therefore, 450K for Nov and Dec is too optimistic, IMO.
Disclaimer : I have a very small (2K unit) long stock on this one, and I cashed them out today.