@apujanata, I love what you're saying. Yes, I see the tension too... but it's a really fun bet to make... I'm happy TSE gives me this oportunity to put a price on my beliefs. This way if I turn out to be wrong it will be a valuable lesson. But like you said the Wii is quite the wildcard. That's why even though I'm anticipating 70-80mil I will probably not go into shorting with less than 100mil... also there's the time factor... even should I prove right it will not be eveident in the shares for another year-two probably... but then again this is one of the reasons I love TSE: when I joined my girlfriend told me that I'll get bored of it soon, like she did of things like Ogame...but with TSE it's different, not only because it's about the games industry which I follow and speculate about anyway but also because it allows for both very micromanagement play and very long term play, and all the inbetween mixes. Yes, I do believe Wii simply had the right right approach with the all important right price at a time when many had stopped seeing improvements in games and from higher investments and when competitors had very high prices. I think it arived at a time when our industry was facing a huge problem: a lot of new technology but lackign the infrastructure and artwork pipeline to take advantage of it in mass, resulting in powerful hardware with few games using it even 20%... and by that I don't mean that cpu/gpu usage was 20%, I'm sure those are 90%+... I mean the fact that the ammount of content in games is very much lacking: what use is there in large technology powering a city full of people of 99.9% of them are faceless puppet duplicates of eachother with no character, dialogue or interactivity. What I believe is happening now and for the years to come is strong consolidation in the tools of the industry, the artwork pipelines, preparing for times when technology falls a bit to the background because content is richer. I wish Wii was a move in that direction too but I don't see Nintendo leading things that way. My point being that I expect in the future platforms with more content and less changes, but for that the platforms need a stronger technical foundation than the Wii currently has. I don't see Wii's technology being satisfactory to everybody for more than 2009. Of course my whole theory is predicated on Wii as a gamer console: if it becomes a device that core gamers stop caring about but that continues to sell without their support... well, then all my theories could fall. I think part of it's present success was a lot of gamer excitement and support both because of excitement and from "nintendad" reasons. One thing that could change my mind is very solid Disney support and a solid market for kids with a very morally un-ambiguous branding. However for core-gamers, and by that I mean people who regard their gaming time as at least as precious as their tv/movie/book/music entertainment forms, I am skeptical that Mii type stylized avatars will win for long in the face of characters to identify with in which you can configure everything from sex to hair color and tone of voice which I'm starting to see emerging as a standard. I am the first to say that hardware is not as important as content, however not only do I see Wii as clearly pointing into not too strong content (many mini games, low budget productions...) but I think streaming worlds with no loading times are increasingly important... and I don't just mean for technology inclined people, I mean for the simple person who'd be willing to enjoy a game but is pulled out of the experience by a loading screen/waiting. From what I can tell right now that could be a big problem for the Wii where the other platforms seem to have a hope.
Do I think a platform which other than the motion control is a generation behind it's competitors can do more than 5 years? No. Even high-tech platforms could become old in 5 years... Do I think Wii can do 100+ mil in 5 years? Personally I doubt it can do 20mil/year for more than 4... but this is where the "educated bet" becomes interesting :D Long live TSE!!!
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I love what you're saying. Yes, I see the tension too... but it's a really fun bet to make... I'm happy TSE gives me this oportunity to put a price on my beliefs. This way if I turn out to be wrong it will be a valuable lesson. But like you said the Wii is quite the wildcard. That's why even though I'm anticipating 70-80mil I will probably not go into shorting with less than 100mil... also there's the time factor... even should I prove right it will not be eveident in the shares for another year-two probably... but then again this is one of the reasons I love TSE: when I joined my girlfriend told me that I'll get bored of it soon, like she did of things like Ogame...but with TSE it's different, not only because it's about the games industry which I follow and speculate about anyway but also because it allows for both very micromanagement play and very long term play, and all the inbetween mixes. Yes, I do believe Wii simply had the right right approach with the all important right price at a time when many had stopped seeing improvements in games and from higher investments and when competitors had very high prices. I think it arived at a time when our industry was facing a huge problem: a lot of new technology but lackign the infrastructure and artwork pipeline to take advantage of it in mass, resulting in powerful hardware with few games using it even 20%... and by that I don't mean that cpu/gpu usage was 20%, I'm sure those are 90%+... I mean the fact that the ammount of content in games is very much lacking: what use is there in large technology powering a city full of people of 99.9% of them are faceless puppet duplicates of eachother with no character, dialogue or interactivity. What I believe is happening now and for the years to come is strong consolidation in the tools of the industry, the artwork pipelines, preparing for times when technology falls a bit to the background because content is richer. I wish Wii was a move in that direction too but I don't see Nintendo leading things that way. My point being that I expect in the future platforms with more content and less changes, but for that the platforms need a stronger technical foundation than the Wii currently has. I don't see Wii's technology being satisfactory to everybody for more than 2009. Of course my whole theory is predicated on Wii as a gamer console: if it becomes a device that core gamers stop caring about but that continues to sell without their support... well, then all my theories could fall. I think part of it's present success was a lot of gamer excitement and support both because of excitement and from "nintendad" reasons. One thing that could change my mind is very solid Disney support and a solid market for kids with a very morally un-ambiguous branding. However for core-gamers, and by that I mean people who regard their gaming time as at least as precious as their tv/movie/book/music entertainment forms, I am skeptical that Mii type stylized avatars will win for long in the face of characters to identify with in which you can configure everything from sex to hair color and tone of voice which I'm starting to see emerging as a standard. I am the first to say that hardware is not as important as content, however not only do I see Wii as clearly pointing into not too strong content (many mini games, low budget productions...) but I think streaming worlds with no loading times are increasingly important... and I don't just mean for technology inclined people, I mean for the simple person who'd be willing to enjoy a game but is pulled out of the experience by a loading screen/waiting. From what I can tell right now that could be a big problem for the Wii where the other platforms seem to have a hope.
Do I think a platform which other than the motion control is a generation behind it's competitors can do more than 5 years? No. Even high-tech platforms could become old in 5 years... Do I think Wii can do 100+ mil in 5 years? Personally I doubt it can do 20mil/year for more than 4... but this is where the "educated bet" becomes interesting :D Long live TSE!!!