People do not drop $60 to 'test' if a game is right for them. They wait for reviews or impressions from their friends. Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said, "there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS". The fanbase is the potential number of people who would pick this up. How does a game with a lacking fanbase hope to draw in new people?
If this was a movie, which would cost less than $10 to rent, yes people would experiment more, but people generally stay with what they know will please them, if they have never played an RTS before, but play FPSs all the time, why would they trade that sure-fire satisfaction for something they are not sure will please them.
Games are an investment (much more so than movies or music, due to cost) and people would rather go with something solid than something that might not have any gain. Due to this I do not think people who own Halo 1-3 will flock to pick up this game, as they will be more than satisfied playing Halo 1-3 or buying some other FPS. Due to this, and the fact that the current prediction would make this one of the best selling Xbox360 games (in an unpopular genre on the Xbox360), it seems unlikely that this will be able to sell more than 1.6 million copies (160DKP). Also, if this game is not AAA, then it sales will be even lower.
Gaara42 also proves a point, i myself bought this stock at 200+k and i think i have to change my mind now and sell it at a loss but you never know halo fans outthere...respect to gaara!
As someone said earlier, there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS. If anything, the Halo label, if it doesn't sell itself, might make people want to test this RTS and see if it is the right game for them. I may be biased by my love of the Halo series, but I still believe that this game will hook both the RTS players and the Halo fans.
Because some can't accept a valid point and only see that they lost money, so they put more money in a stock so they "make" more money, until they face reality :o)
This stock continues to crawl back up, does anyone have a good reason why this game, a RTS on a console, will sell 2 million copies. C&C3:TW sold 440,000 on 360 and Lord of the Rings: Battle for Middle Earth for the Xbox360 sold around 300,000.
It seems that the Xbox360 does not have a large base of user who want to play RTS games. Looking at the list of million selling Xbox360 games, there are no strategy games there, it is mostly FPSs, RPGs, sports games and racing games. From this I very much doubt that this game will sell more than Call of Duty 3, Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas, Madden NFL 07, Guitar Hero II and various other games in more popular genres than RTS on consoles. This game should be at around 150-160DKP
I was trying to find vgchartz numbers for C&C:TW but my vgchartz search was only turning up the PC version, thanks for posting those numbers. Halo Wars will probably not sell more than C&C:TW did for the PC (we predicted 1.61 million). Like I said before I think the Halo brand is strong, but I don't think it will help this game reach 1.6-2 million levels. And I have a feeling that this game will turn out to be more of a AA game than a AAA game. From this 1.5 million or below seems more accurate to me.
I'm not saying Halo Wars will sell as many total copies of C&C3 when you include its PC sales. It could, but those #s are more there simply for reference. I think Halo Wars will sell quite good 1-3 million if it turns out AAA, but 500k-1 million if it turns out AA.
@Gaara42, Command & Conquer 3: TW would be a better comparison to Halo Wars than LotR:BfME. In USA alone C&C3:TW sold 440,000 on 360 according to VGC. It was also on PC so we'd have to also consider whether Halo Wars is coming to PC or not, since it is RTS it could very well. Probably though it will be 360 timed exclusive. Also we predict C&C3 selling 470K 360 and 1.61M PC for reference.
I agree. I doubt the rabid FPS fanbase of Halo will translate over to an RTS. It's possible, but I think there are very few examples of a genre crossing franchise (with the notable exception of Warcraft).
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People do not drop $60 to 'test' if a game is right for them. They wait for reviews or impressions from their friends. Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said,
"there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS". The fanbase is the potential number of people who would pick this up. How does a game with a lacking fanbase hope to draw in new people?
If this was a movie, which would cost less than $10 to rent, yes people would experiment more, but people generally stay with what they know will please them, if they have never played an RTS before, but play FPSs all the time, why would they trade that sure-fire satisfaction for something they are not sure will please them.
Games are an investment (much more so than movies or music, due to cost) and people would rather go with something solid than something that might not have any gain. Due to this I do not think people who own Halo 1-3 will flock to pick up this game, as they will be more than satisfied playing Halo 1-3 or buying some other FPS. Due to this, and the fact that the current prediction would make this one of the best selling Xbox360 games (in an unpopular genre on the Xbox360), it seems unlikely that this will be able to sell more than 1.6 million copies (160DKP). Also, if this game is not AAA, then it sales will be even lower.