@Laoldar, Then that means the loss (from potential $) Microsoft suffer is even bigger. Instead of my previous calculation of $40 / game, it is now $50 / game.
Retailers don't make $20 off each video game. Even at Wal Mart (where they likely get some of the best wholesale prices) they only make about 15-20% profit off each video game (or about $10).
I believe that Halo Wars is only a timed exclusive on X360, and will be ported to PC later on. I don't have any evidence that it will be ported to PC later on, but it is a logical assumption. I believe most PC gamer, especially who didn't have X360, will also have the same assumption. Microsoft will not kill the X360 version sales by releasing info that it will be coming to PC version BEFORE launch of the X360 version, but I believe it will have a press release 2 or 3 months AFTER X360 version release.
I believe this is a good stock to shortsell on, but you should expect a bumpy ride up until the release of information that it is going to be released in PC later on.
Why is the free bundling loss so small ? a couple of dollars only ?
Isn't X360 games usually sold at $60 MSRP ? Even if we deduct the say $20 retailer profit from the $60 MSRP, we are still talking about $40 dollar potential profit that Microsoft lose because of free bundling.
If we talk about 2 Million unit (200 DKP you mentioned), we are talking about $ 80 Million. Of course, Microsoft (as a whole, not just the entertainment division) is a big company, and has +1 Billion $ cash surplus every quarter, but to say $ 80 Million is small money, especially when Entertainment Divison already lost billions US$ (IIRC) as cumulative loss since launch of XBOX in 2001.
@Gaara42, I do believe that Ensemble Studios has the ability to make a good RTS consoles game, but it all depends on whether they are able to make the gameplay and controls work well on the 360. Ensemble Studios has a proven track record, but only on the PC - this does help with some facets of making any RTS game. I believe sales could take a hit if this title gets ported to the PC because that is the platform of choice for most RTS fans because the controls work the best thus far.
@ivanassen, Microsoft is investing in trying to create a good RTS game for the 360 (with using one of their larger, well-known RTS studios to do so), but whether this investment will produce a game with solid controls and gameplay is yet to be seen.
The free bundling doesn't incur as much loss as you'd think - it's a couple of dollars max. And Microsoft gains continuing presence of the Halo brand, and nurturing a new type of console gamer, the RTS gamer. There's a theory that Microsoft's success in NA is due to them successfully converting PC gamers to Xbox 360; to complete this conversion, they need the RTS and MMO gamers, and this is why I think they'll invest in Halo Wars.
This is why target for the stock is above 200.0 DKP.
Viva Pinata was a game targeted at children (even if it was a complex strategy game), so why wouldn't Microsoft bundle a game aimed at bringing in a new audience to their console. Halo Wars is not meant to grow the audience but to take advantage of the already built in audience.
I agree that Halo 3 would have sold less would it have had a different name, but the fact remains that the people I know (they have to be a small portion of the 5 million who bought the game, no one has that many friends, I am making an observation based on the data I currently have) bought it because they trust the brand, the know that it will deliver a high quality FPS, both single player and multiplayer. They don't buy it just because its Halo, but because it was a name synonymous with quality, much like people buy BMW or Aston Martin because they are brands whose name is synonymous with quality. But that doesn't mean everything that those companies make is successful, just the same here.
Like apujanata said, Halo doesn't have a proven track record and I don't see the brand carrying this game. Also, if they don't announce other Halo related things, public awareness of the brand will fade and it will lose much of its power to sell games. And I still don't trust the ensemble studios, who have never made a console game let alone a RTS console game, can somehow master how to make controls on a console work on their first try, especially with their quality slipping as of late.
Due to all of this I think this game will sell max 140DKP.
From your posts, it seems that your high expectation is based on the following key points : - Halo brand awareness - official bundling by Microsoft
For Halo brand awareness (that increase Halo Wars sales #), has there ever been history of games that also use Halo brand in their title and doing well of it ? I think Mario brand has been proven again and again, and there are lots of games that have Sonic brand, so we can analyze the effect of Sonic brand for those games, but Halo brand is not a proven concept yet, AFAIK. You are expecting Halo brand to have 1.4 Million effect (1.6 million - 200K), while there was no solid evidence for it in the history ?
There are two type of official bundling, one that increase the price, one that is not increasing the price (essentially mean free game).
In the case of increasing the price bundling, it might not happen. Why ? PS3 price is not too different compared to X360 now, compared to the past. Why should Microsoft run the risk of bundling this game, which practically mean they are increasing X360 price by $50, and decreasing X360 platform price difference against PS3 (assuming no PS3 bundling was done) ?
In the case of free bundling, why should Microsoft suffer loss ? Microsoft is trying to get a profit out of its entertainment division, and doing this free bundling made that target more difficulty.
With all due respect, I think you know quite a small portion of the 5 mln who bought Halo. If the game was called Ijaki 7 and had the same gameplay, it would have sold between 100k and 200k.
Viva Pinata is a fairly complicated strategy game that was bundled recently with a console. Bundles are sometimes determined not by the desirability of the game itself, but also on things like how much financial or brand-image investment there is in the game itself which the publisher needs to recoup in some way. It's one of the few first-party games for Microsoft this year, I see no reason why their marketing machine should pass on this one.
@Gaara42, My opinion on this title is that a large part of the sales depends on whether Ensemble Studios (the developer) is able to nail the controls for a RTS on the 360 and whether it ends up being ported to the PC (which I believe many RTS players prefer over consoles for playing RTS games). I would be cautious with this stock because the controls have yet to be throughly tested. I also doubt that being part of the Halo brand will help the sales of this very significantly, but there will still be some people that pick this title up because of the Halo brand.
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Then that means the loss (from potential $) Microsoft suffer is even bigger. Instead of my previous calculation of $40 / game, it is now $50 / game.