What is the reasoning that Warhammer will make 2 million sales at this point? We know that our PC game forecasts have been very bullish. Less than a handful of MMORPGs have even broke 1.5 million in sales. I think WoW is the only MMO to break 2 million. This stock price seems a bit bullish.
We're back from Thanksgiving with turkey, stuffing, and all the fixin's ready to rock and roll into these final weeks before beta goes live. We now give thanks to Career Mastery, RvR Keeps, and if that's not enough a User Interface revamp. Hold onto your britches because this update is going to knock your socks off!
These give you an idea of the detail that’s going into our capital cities. As an added bonus, in this month’s Newsletter we have a video tour of Altdorf. You’ll see the Blow Hole from the perspective of someone walking down the street. If you watch closely, you’ll also see areas of the city in ruin and on fire. This is the first glimpse at what this incredible city is going to look like after it’s been ravaged by the forces of Destruction.
Greetings!
It's that time again to share some news from the front lines in the second part of our WAR Beta Updates. Learn about itemization, city life in Altdorf, insider information on the Marauder and much more!
You are not correct about how Blizzard counts subscribers when you say "...all Blizzard is measuring are accounts. Thats total number of people who have purchased the game and signed up with an account, so overall WoW has sold ~ the same number of copies as they have accounts, but it's by no means a measure of the activity level of the game." I'm not sure how you came to this conclusion.
Here is how Blizzard defines a subscriber in their press releases.
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees' territories are defined along the same rules.
Additionally the source that you site for your 5.8 million number is not measuring subscribers or active accounts, it is measuring "characters at level 10 and up" I also doubt that they measure anything at all for the Chinese market which is based on a whole different set of servers.
While these stats are interesting I don't think any of these stats are all that useful for determining the total number of sales for WoW:BC or Warhammer for that matter. A declining number of characters in one game does not mean a net positive for any other game.
@Zapron, According to even the graph you posted it shows an overall drop in activity. Yes it went back up from September, but that was only to the point it was in August. Activity is still lower than it was last October, the expansion, while selling well, has not caused more than a temporary spike in activity.
Regarding the source you cited, like I've said several times now, all Blizzard is measuring are accounts. Thats total number of people who have purchased the game and signed up with an account, so overall WoW has sold ~ the same number of copies as they have accounts, but it's by no means a measure of the activity level of the game.
re: downbids. I only downbid you after you downbid my comments, if you don't like being downbid I would suggest you keep that in mind the next time you downbid someone you're having a discussion with.
"OK even if you don't want to accept the actual numbers used on the site you can still take a look at the graphs on their site that show a drop in activity."
What historical data are you using to come to the conclusion that fewer people are playing WoW? You can't compare the 5.8 million characters on warcraftrealms.com to the 9million active subscription reported by blizzard because they are different metrics and measured by different sources.
The only trend data given by this website is found at: http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weeklyactivity.php?serverid=-1&factionid=3
Which in fact contridicts the assertion that there is less activity. If you look at the period between July (when the 9million subscribers were reported) and october (now) it actually shows that for all classes, except the alliance hunter, daily activity is steady or slightly increasing. It also shows an upturn in activity occurring in the month of October.
This is my last post towards you as I don't want to distract any further from Warhammer.
PS: If you are going to devalue my posts about this conversation fine, but there's no reason to devalue an unrelated news article just because I posted it.
@Zapron, OK even if you don't want to accept the actual numbers used on the site you can still take a look at the graphs on their site that show a drop in activity. There are fewer people playing WoW overall, that means they are looking for a new game to play and would be attracted to a game similar to WoW if it came along (Which is the relevant point to this stock).
WAR is predicted at 2 million because it is expected that at least some of the people from WoW who have quit will move over and buy this game.
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