-Its userbase (people who actually play it regularly) has shrunk dramatically, not as enticing to new players than a thriving community on others. -Anyone who does play it will have a massive advantage over new Asian players, they wont like this. -It is a western styled game, which has never been popular in japan. But mainly -Its sheer amount of competition.
I estimate this game to have sold in the 800-900k region in Europe and NA. Even with the 10% drop today our price is predicting that Asia alone will contribute half the lifetime sales. This is in my opinion very unrealistic. A price of 125dkp is where i think this stock should be at, as this gives room for reasonable sales but isnt hoping for too much from Asia.
I think we still have Asia to wait before we call time on this product and all the time it continues to get development time I guess it still has hope.
That said I sold my stock some time ago and if I was a shrew kinda guy I would be shorting this puppy as its current price reflects to much promise and little sign of it coming to fruition.
An MMOG's health is indicated by its server numbers, which means AoC is currently ailing. Funcom's new Game Director for AoC, writes on the game's forums that server merging, in both Europe and NA, will soon occur.
AoC did have 700,000 players, but that was when the game first shipped and players had a free trial month with the purchase. Funcom investors also seem to be looking for the nearest exit. The company's stock is currently trading at $5, that's down $50 from before AoC shipped.
What is your source for the game already selling a million copies? The last count i had it at was 800k.
The game has already lost hype, its userbase is already shrinking, and this is being shown by frankly terrible sales in PC charts across the globe. The game not appearing in Top 20 lists, and it being beaten by year old FPS's shows that it has NO LEGS.
I know that it is being released in Asia at somepoint in 2009 and i am factoring that into my prediction. Heres why i think it wont sell in Asia.
-Its userbase (people who actually play it regularly) has shrunk dramatically, not enticing to new players than a thriving community on others. -Anyone who does play it will have a massive advantage over new Asian players, they wont like this. -It is a western styled game, which has never been popular in japan - note 360's lack of success as it is mainly western. But mainly -Its sheer amount of competition.
The game will already be practically dead by the time the film comes out.
So my numbers for this are, 800k in the west, with no legs i think that 1million lifetime estimate would be generous. And then Asian sales which i believe will be under 500k, and possibly quite a way under 500k. Hence my 1-1.5million price range.
@apujanata, I see it as an increase in potential customers, possibly more populated worlds. My big question is if a mmo is equally playable on a console? Chatting is very important for a mmo, and it is impossible to write at resonable speeds without a keyboard. In Europe voice communication is not that popular due to all the various languages as most can write decent english, but not speak it properly. Then again one can just plug in a keyboard in the console.
@vGInfidel, Given that the game has already sold over 100dkp and it is less than 6 months into its 2-4 year lifespan I think you are overly negative. The game is in many ways very good, and with the right brush up it could become what many hoped. If the new producer and game director has what it takes, I don't know, but one can hope. :) The game is set to be launched in Russia and on Xbox within the next year. The new feature film about Conan (release 2009?) should also work as a pretty good marketing campaign for the game.
It gives credit to my evaluation that the game doesnt have legs, and in my opinion the current stock price at the moment is definetly factoring large MMO legs, that it doesnt appear to have. I think its still overvalued and should be in the 100-140dkp price range.
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When I say Asian I mean all of Asian. Japan has a very unique taste in Rpg's which the rest of Asian do not necessarily commonly subscribe.
That said I agree that this is all about an expectation of a market that may not exist or as you point out will pass them by.