@Gaara42, You have your own analysis, and I have my own analysis. Some of your comment are not true (personally, I don't think Nintendo are a big factor, unlike you), some are true (5 Million is improbable). I don't like bringing anecdotal situation into analysis (your friend who own Wii might now hate Wii, but I have friends who own Wii and don't hate Wii, so thoe anecdotal situation cancel each other).
The reason I put 3 Million as upper point is because it is double my expectation, which is 1.5 Million. I always double my estimate to provide significant safety margin. 750K is half of 1.5 Million, and serve as my bottom point.
You (and anyone else who think that the current price is too high) should drive down this stock to sub 1 Million, so I can buy them up at the aforementioned 750K price range, since that is the lowest estimate I have for this game. This is a nice stock to gamble on, since even my 750K estimate is pure guessing. I think I will go slow and easy on this one, to minimize possible loss.
I think short position is a good position, since Zukaus are also short on this stock (even though it didn't show up on his profile yet, since his investment are not big enough)
What evidence do you have that a FPS will sell 3 million yet alone 5 million copies on the Wii? Seems like you threw around numbers.
Even if Nintendo is a publisher, Metroid Prime 3 did not sell extremely well and I have found no track record of success in this genre on Nintendo platforms besides Metroid Prime 2 and Golden Eye.
I pointed out RE4 because it is not proof that a shooting type game can sell on the Wii, just that a strong game from a previous generation can.
While this game may not be more violent that Red Steel or Metroid, equaling Metroid and probably a bit below Red Steel, it is still a violent game, especially by Wii standards, which due to the demographic buying the console, can be a detriment to sales.
Also, I am taking into account backlash against Nintendo due to it seeming lack of want to cater to hardcore gamers. I know many friends who own a Wii, but do not even consider whether new games such as this are coming out for it, they would rather spend their money on playing TF2, COD4, etc. This game may get hyped, but look at No More Heroes, it was touted as the game for hardcore gamers on the Wii, but it did not sell well at all.
The install base of the Wii does not represent the buying base of the Wii, which I believe to be smaller than that of the Xbox360 (software sales are testament to that). Many people who would potentially picked up this game have given up on the Wii and Nintendo.
5 million is absurd, that would put it in the realm of Zelda and Mario Party and would mean it would sell more than Guitar Hero III for the Wii, something I find highly improbable.
3 million, with the data based on other games like it, does not seem supportable either, hype does not equal sales.
Due to this, 1 million seems more accurate, especially since this game has no publisher. If the publisher is Nintendo, then add on 500,000, but if not, I do not see this game selling well, even if Nintendo promotes it.
@Gaara42, The high price is most likely the usual bubble after an IPO.
It doesn't seem overly violent to me. In addition, if the game is not published by Nintendo, the title may have a better shot due to the usual advertising and marketing neglect given to hardcore titles by Nintendo - a third party publisher would probably be more willing to advertise and market the game.
I don't think name recognition is a big factor at this point with this title due to the continuing hype it is receiving. More so, this game can easily outsell MP3: Corruption just by being advertised and marketed instead of being released quietly in the fashion that MP3 was.
@Gaara42, This is a stock that are difficult to predict : - They don't have publisher yet. What happen IF Nintendo is the publisher ? - Are you sure this game is more violent than say Red Steel or Metroid Prime 3 ? I don't notice any scene of "significantly more violent" in the trailer. - RE4, even though it is very good, was an "old" game, and released on GC and PS2 before Wii. I don't feel that it is impossible for Conduit to get 1.5 Million or more.
The way I see this stock is : - Worst case : 75 DKP (750K sales) - Best case : 300 DKP (3 Million sales) - Fabulous case (I don't believe it is going to happen, but there is a very slight possibility that it can happen) : 500 DKP (5 Million sales) Which is why I got out of my short at 150DKP pricepoint.
I will go long on this stock at 1 Million or below pricepoint. I will go short on this stock at 3 Million price point, but not too heavily. I will short this out like there is no tomorrow at 5 Million price point.
Why is this stock priced so high? Do we have any indication that a violent game such as this can sell 1.75 million copies on the Wii? Especially if it is not a game made by Nintendo. Red Steel was a launch title and this title seems to be more violent than that game. We have Metroid Prime 3: Corruption price at 155DKP or predicting 1.55 million in sales lifetime. I highly doubt this game will sell better than Metroid Prime 3: Corruption. Resident Evil 4 was a remake of a very popular game from a highly regarded franchise, and it is only priced at 162.46DKP. This game has neither the name recognition nor the Nintendo backing that either of those last two games had. This should probably be around 1 million or below.
"At E3 2008 this week, we finally had the chance to go hands-on with the shooter to find out if it's really all that High Voltage has been promising. And now that we've gripped the Wii remote in our hands, run through a world drown in uncommon (for Wii) graphical effects and gunned down alien vermin with customized precision, we can state without any hesitation that it most certainly is the real deal."
@Just_Ben, As far as I understand it, second party only applied to game that are developed by companies that Nintendo (or Sony or Microsoft) has share of (might need majority share, but not wholly owned, or own 100% share, since that mean it is first party).
Is High Voltage owned by Nintendo ? I don't it is, but I could be wrong.
@Mushashi, As someone who once considered buying Geist (even though I didn't like FPS, I considered Geist for it's puzzle and possession part, not shooting part) and are interested in Conduit (even though I didn't like FPS, I did play Metroid Prime 1 & 2, but didn't finish them), I have to say that I am more interested in Conduit than Geist. Even though I am not someone who are "graphic oriented", I have to admit that Geist's graphic are a little bit "under average". After playing MP1 & MP2, I couldn't bring my self to be too enthusiastic about Geist (something about this game really made think twice about buying it, even though I couldn't really point out what part of it I don't like, and I like lots of DS game and their "low res" graphic).
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You have your own analysis, and I have my own analysis. Some of your comment are not true (personally, I don't think Nintendo are a big factor, unlike you), some are true (5 Million is improbable). I don't like bringing anecdotal situation into analysis (your friend who own Wii might now hate Wii, but I have friends who own Wii and don't hate Wii, so thoe anecdotal situation cancel each other).
The reason I put 3 Million as upper point is because it is double my expectation, which is 1.5 Million. I always double my estimate to provide significant safety margin. 750K is half of 1.5 Million, and serve as my bottom point.
You (and anyone else who think that the current price is too high) should drive down this stock to sub 1 Million, so I can buy them up at the aforementioned 750K price range, since that is the lowest estimate I have for this game. This is a nice stock to gamble on, since even my 750K estimate is pure guessing. I think I will go slow and easy on this one, to minimize possible loss.
I think short position is a good position, since Zukaus are also short on this stock (even though it didn't show up on his profile yet, since his investment are not big enough)