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Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC)
Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone
Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone
GamesIndustry - January 1, 2008
Submitted by welshbloke (60) at 3:49AM PST on June 6, 2008
Funcom has announced that it has passed the milestone of one million copies shipped for its MMO Age of Conan, less than three weeks after the title's launch.
Age of Conan: Hybroian Adventures has had a strong performance on the UK, US and Europe charts. Funcom had announced that the title broke pre-order records and netted over 400,000 users in its first week.
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1Mushashi posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 11:44AM PST on June 8, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@Gaara42,
I think it is only fair to compair either subscription or micropayment type MMOs together, free to play should always have more users as free is always best to attract players as no barrier to entry :-)
There was article at gamasutra with complaint by subscription MMO developer that micropayment MMO developers did not reveal profitability for their games.
"The microtransaction guys will say that they are more successful," he argues. "Oh really? I find it very disingenuous when publishers talk about how many people are playing their game but won't talk about how much money they're making."
"Frankly, I would rather have one million customers who are all paying to play than 20 million customers with only one million of them paying to play. I can give them better support, I can give them a better game, I can deal with a better community, I have fewer customer service headaches."[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1Gaara42 posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 11:14AM PST on June 8, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@apujanata,
Just wanted to note that this chart is missing other large MMOs, namely Guild Wars, MapleStory (if it wants to count Runescape) and others. Due to this, this chart is mis-representing the MMO market, since it has selectively chosen more MMOs which have not been as successful. Take MapleStory, which has been very successful, by some estimates more successful than WOW. Looking at this source, we see that since Dec. 2004, China has had 18M subscribers, and that data is only up to Feb 2006, so the numbers could be much larger now. Even though MapleStory is free to play, it shows that there is a large potential market if developers figure out how to market their product correctly to different regions.
Also, looking at the chart you provide, WOW seems to fit the same trend that Age of Conan has taken, which is gaining many subscribers very quickly early on and continued growth from there. Also, if you look at the peak of many of the MMOs on the chart, it is many times higher than what their first month subscriptions were.
Due to this, and various other reasons, this stock by all accounts tracking well. As more press releases are made we will be able to get a better picture of where this stock should go, but at present it seems to be accurate.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 8 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 7:13PM PST on June 7, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@vGInfidel,
I see.
I just found an update of my old 2003 chart here.
Please note that this chart is "Active Subscription" based, not "retail sales #" based. Also this chart only focus on 200K+ subscription. There are other chart for 70 - 700K and 0 - 120K (don't know why there are overlap between those 3 charts).
I didn't vouch for the accuracy of this chart nor its source, so use it with discretion.
As you can see, there are BIG difference between #1 (WoW, 10 Million) and #2 (currently is FFXI, 1.5 Million, as of April 2008). What is interesting is the fact that Lineage (biggest MMO in Korea) and LineAge II have big drop from their peak #.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1vGInfidel posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 6:23AM PST on June 7, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@apujanata,
I didnt mean to say that AoC would have long legs just that IF it is going to be successful, and have high lifetime sales, then to achieve this it must have long legs as sales arent going to be very front loaded like in other genres.
I dont know anything about the MMO market as i dont play those sorts of games and dont follow news and sales releases from it. Which is why i withdrew my short position very early on. I am just making assumptions from the limited knowledge i have, mainly from seeing the success of WoW.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
3apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 10:31PM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@Gaara42,
Please note I am asking question "is it reasonable". I am not saying "it is not reasonable". I even specifically mention that I have no experience in analyzing MMO game in one of my post (id 30501).
I agree that my first post (id 30466) is more into "saying it is not reasonable", but my later posts is in the asking mode, not countering mode.
About the Guild Wars link you quoted, I noticed this :
"Guild Wars® franchise of online roleplaying games has surpassed five million units sold in North America, Europe, and Asia."
and
"the Guild Wars franchise consists of the original Guild Wars, Guild Wars Factions®, Guild Wars Nightfall®, and the recently released expansion, Guild Wars: Eye of the North"
If I read it correctly, the 5 Million units sold WW is for 4 games (GW, GW Factions, GW Nightfall and GW:EotN).
We are prediction only one game here : AoC:HA, not four games.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 10:23PM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@apujanata,
Can the person who keep on downbidding my questioning comment post (id 30502 and id 30466)share his reason to downbid those post ? I think my question is perfectly normal (not fanboyish), so I need feedback as to what exactly you don't like about my post so I could correct my future posts.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
0Gaara42 posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 10:21PM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@apujanata,
Could you provide data analysis of your own citing why you doubt the continued success of this game? Have you not considered that the number of people playing video games and MMOs has gone up since the time of World of Warcraft's release? Has the possibility of people picking this up months or a year after it has come out been factored into your doubt adequately?
I bought Guild Wars a good (over) two years after it came out. People are still starting new accounts in World of Warcraft. MapleStory continues to grow. The citation of years old MMOs still gaining new membership is long. I have no reason to doubt that given a year or more this game will be able to reach the current stock price.
It seems the sole basis for your argument at the moment is that no other MMO will be able to do as well as WOW or close to it. Then what do you make of Guild Wars surpassing the 5 million copies sold mark? It might have taken three years, but it is definitely possible for this game to have the same amount of legs. Remember, this is an MMO, it creates a community for people to come and join. We have seen how a game that creates a community vibe does, even when it is not a MMO. Cite Halo franchise, Call of Duty 4 or Super Smash Bros Melee, though more so with CoD4 as it continued to sell even though it is part of a genre that usually has very front-loaded sales and Melee continued to sell well years after release because it created a community of people who enjoyed playing the game with others.
In the end, it seems that this game will most likely reach the current prediction, whether it takes one year or five does not matter as we are calculating lifetime sales.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 8 ]bids
0apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 10:05PM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@welshbloke,
Any reason why you think this game should reach "half of WoW" instead of "60% of WoW" or "40% of WoW" ?
Anyone have list of current LTD for all MMO type game ? I have one, but it is from year 2003, so it is OLD data.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 10:02PM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@vGInfidel,
Beside WoW, what other MMO has shown great legs ? Since WoW is #1 MMO (at the moment), I don't feel comfortable using it as "proof" that all MMO (which include AoC) have legs.
The only MMO I have ever played is Ragnarok Online. I didn't played Everquest, WoW, or any other MMO. I was tempted with FFXI and Ultima Online, but I didn't bite.
I am telling you this so that you know I don't have any experience with MMO game performance, which is the reason why I didn't have any significant position on AoC.
I am not saying that 1 Million is a bad performance for AoC. I am just questioning whether it is "normal / possible" to get to 3.8 Million (current price) from 1 Million. It seems that lots of people think it is possible, so we'll see how this stock do.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2welshbloke posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 7:06AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@vGInfidel,
Well maybe it is not to late for stock after all. If it only manages half the success of WoW then we still have some growth yet.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1Duff12345 posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 6:43AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestonebids
3vGInfidel posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 4:32AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@welshbloke,
I wish i had as well. I held a fairly large short position on it at 100dkp for some time, once it dropped to around 70dkp i brought it back again. I had a feeling that it was going to either be a massive flop or a big hit so wanted to get out and didnt take a position on it till i could be more certain. I held one stock as long so i could track its progress, and that shows me currently a 350% return, if only i had taken a gamble and gone long properly. It seems a bit too late now :( Although staying short would have been alot more costly :)
And apujanta, for a MMO you would expect very long legs, like WoW has shown. So 1 million shipped isnt a bad total at this stage, i think WoW was substantially lower, although then it was establishing the MMO market not just competing for a place. Its the legs this game shows over the coming months (and even years) that will determine where lifetime sales end up, not the first few weeks.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 4:03AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@apujanata,
I still wish I had bought shares in it when it first came out. This was most definately a sleeper.
Not sure about the price though as this would be one of the products I would expect to see selling well for a longer period of time and although the initial sales are high I expect them to taper off slower than a more traditional game type especially with the praise it continues to receive.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 3:59AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestone@welshbloke,
I think the current price (3.6 Million) is a little bit too high for "1 Million shipped in less than 3 weeks" situation we have.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 3:50AM PST on June 6, 2008. RE: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestonebids
39welshbloke posted on Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC) at 3:49AM PST on June 6, 2008. Article: Age of Conan reaches 1m milestoneFuncom has announced that it has passed the milestone of one million copies shipped for its MMO Age of Conan, less than three weeks after the title's launch. Age of Conan: Hybroian Adventures has had a strong performance on the UK, US and Europe charts. Funcom had announced that the title broke pre-order records and netted over 400,000 users in its first week.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]
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I agree with you that we should only compare subscription MMO with other subscription MMO, and exclude micropayment MMO and free MMO (like Maple Story, which I haven't even heard of until Gaara mention it).
@Gaara42,
I think it is too early to predict that AoC will follow WOW trend, since there is only data from AoC's first 3 weeks. After 3 months, I believe we can get "true trend" of AoC, and compare it with WOW.
It is true that lots of MMO's peak are many times higher than first months subscriptions, so you could be correct in thinking that this stock is priced right.
I think I will wait for 2 more months before deciding whether I want to invest in this stock or not, and at what position (long or short). :D