Yeah, it's pretty good to see this title making your way through the sales. It's a bit sad that in Japan it hasn't sold very well. But maybe things change in the future. I'll buy my copy next month =D and I can't wait 'till there.
Lol, wow. I never even noticed that it released in January. From what the reviews are saying and the (moderate) level of buzz around the inter webs this side of the pacific, does it not seem like the February future is terribly undervalued?
@apujanata, I think you make a very good point about the initial launch values of the game being unreasonable with the monthly future of the game; this is either going to horribly under-perform for lifetime sales or this is an enormous sleeper opportunity for a stock. The issue I was raising is that this is a game that is coming out when there won't be any valued launched titles for the month and with just a slight amount of momentum it can easily meet the anticipated life time sales of the game.
But we both speculate differently for this game and for that we have different ideas on how it should act. I will concede that your assumptions of the game are much more grounded than mine, I'm just an optimist.
I would watch it on the February future for this title for a couple of reasons:
1. It is not the launch month. 2. Supply of the title have been tight with major retailers such as GameStop only being able to fill pre-orders and other retailers not having the title in stock. Though Ubisoft may increase the shipments meaning more product on the shelf in February.
One thing I don't understand : Why is the GLS of this game at 79.74 DKP, while the NPD Feb 08 future is only 12.79 DKP ? I don't think this two fact can coexist.
We know that NMH is "dead" in Japan, as in almost zero sales. That means to get good sales, it need to rely on Europe and US. If we breakdown that GLS is : 50% first month, 20% second month, and 20% the rest of life, then 12.79 will convert into 25 DKP for US. Can we expect Europe to give good sales for this game ?
If we change the assumption that 40% of GLS is generated in first month, US will have 32 DKP, which is still too high, if we assume that Europe have 50% of US GLS.
@lstormy10, I think people are buying this because there are only a couple of good games coming out for the Wii in the coming months and one of them was pushed back to March.
Just to let people know, I just got finished watching the newest episode of X-Play that just aired, and (kind of to my suprise and excitement) they ended up giving No More Heroes a 5 out of 5 (really good for the game).
I hope people are not buying this because they believe the sales of the game will increase based on the number of good reviews the game is getting (the lowest I have seen is 7.8 thus far, and that is still good for any videogame). Be cautious: good reviews do not always translate into a large leap in sales (as the stock has jumped today when articles have been posted covering the reviews of the game).
1
EU : 150k / NA : 180k