calling Fallout 3 one of the most impressive videogames of the year in a season that has already brought us Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV isn't meant to be hyperbole. Even in its unoptimized stage (all the content is there, development is just about polish from now until October), Fallout 3 is still one of the most engaging and playable titles this side of Liberty City... and I've only tested it for about an hour.
Last night, we heard that Fallout 3 had been refused classification in Australia by the Office of Film & Literature Classification. Which is a lovely, legalese term for "banned". But just what was it about the game that caused the decision? What content was deemed too explicit to be given an MA15+ rating, the highest the OFLC are allowed to give? Turns out it had nothing to do with gore, or cannibalism. It was the drugs.
We didn't think Fallout 3 was close enough to completion for a rating, but the Australian Office of Film and Literature Classification has already refused to classify the title, effectively banning it from sale in the country.
When I was looking for past sales data, I was thinking the same thing, that the titles were released nearly a decade ago, so I doubted whether finding the data would reveal anything, as the current landscape had changed so much. It would be akin to looking at Doom 2 sales and using them to predict how Doom 4 would sell.
Nope, I have no such evidence. Purely anecdotal, based on my trawling of internet forums. Just call me Captain Speculation. I do see it continually recommended though. Perhaps the 2nd hand market might kill it's long tail though?
As for all 3 platforms, I confess utter ignorance as to the nuances of the PC market - all I know is what I've read recently about 'piracy killing the PC as a platform'. That doesn't make me bullish about PC sales, but I'm not confident of that opinion.
For 360, I'm guessing this is going to sell very well, based mostly on the community goodwill generated by Oblivion. It's already got serious buzz in the enthusiast press - it remains to be seen if that translates to mass-market sales. I fear it may get lost in the holiday deluge.
For PS3, it's more of an unknown - Bethesda have less of a track record on Sony hardware. My suspicion is that it'll have a higher attach rate on PS3, but lower sales that 360.
As for comparisons with earlier Fallout games, it's a sufficiently old IP that I'm not sure comparisons with it's previous iterations hold any water - the market landscape has changed so much since they launched.
Anyway, all just my opinion. Take from it what you will.
Could you provide recent forum post and sales data or charts that show that Oblivion is still selling in any significant numbers. While I am inclined to believe your claims, I would rather have some proof or data to confirm them. Do Bethesda games in particular have a long tail or do just their good games (or most good games in general) have long tails, that should be noted.
How do you feel Fallout 3 will perform when all three platform sales are combined? Currently we are predicting 5.84 million copies sold. I will continue to look for Fallout 1 and 2 sales to see for comparison.
I think that perhaps the 360 stock is only a tiny bit overpriced.
With refererence to Oblivion, that game has legs. It not only got a re-release in the Game Of The Year edition, but is *still* a game that's people recommend in response to the eternal "wat game shuld I bye" posts on forums across the interwebs, and is still selling with a budget price tag on it.
I see no reason why Fallout won't be building on that success, and following suit with a GotY rerelease for the 2009 holiday season. While the stock price seems high for a traditional sales curve, the Bethesda games have a much longer tail, if I don't miss my guess.
It seems that either no one read this post or no one has a counter to the argument. Considering the movement of this stock, I would bet on the former. Can anyone provide a reason why this stock is so high? Do you have sales data for the PC versions or do you believe that a RPG being released on three platforms will sell over 3 million copies on the Xbox 360 alone?
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