vGInfidel is correct. At the time I wrote my post, the lowest player short order is 293 DKP. Right now, it is 200 DKP. Seems like opposition is gathering at point lower than my estimate, so it is possible I didn't get any chance to get into action (I am not willing to change my original estimate since this stock is risky).
I think he meant that there was no stock for sale from another member below the 293dkp, there was only the automarket selling up to that point. That has since changed with a number of stock being offered up for sale at lower price points, namely by me ; ).
@apujanata, How did you figure out that no one shorted it lower than when it was at 293k? Is that what you meant, because that doesn't make sense to me, looking at the stock's history. I am confused.
Giving opinions and information is similar to research report from analyst, which always cost $$$ ;-) You are right that information is power when trading.
For example, I did not see the Nintendo E3 conference and so did not know that DS outsold Wii in June and lost much money because of my lack of information :-)
For this GLS, I currently have to agree with Gaara42, I have seen no reason to buy this GLS and would more likely sell it again if it continues to increase in value, 220 DKP is now the short price limit so another player agrees with this view.
@lstormy10, To tell you the truth, I am not sure that I am willing to "open my book" for stock other than this one. Information many other didn't realize might be your "competitive advantage" and it will enable you to profit massively, instead of profit modestly.
Example : If I didn't tell Joe80 the # for IPO games in Japan, I might be able to profit more (people might be willing to sell DQIV at 50 DKP price point if they didn't realize that DQIV has reached 120 DKP in Japan, alone).
In simEx, information is power, and that is why all article about game sales have high bid (valuable), and why people sometime invest BEFORE they posted valuable information (like CODIV doing better than expected etc). I know that I have done this in the past, and I probably will do it again in the future :)
Back to topic : The current price (186 DKP) is not interesting enough ATM (especially considering the risk), and I only have 2 unit of stock to keep track of it. When we get to 3 Million, that is where we should be getting more transaction (currently, the lowest short order by player is 293 DKP, which mean nobody dared to short below that # yet).
I am curious about how you arrived at the similar figure to me (750K and 2-3 Million). Are your reason the same as me ?
@apujanata, I don't mine "opening my book" - actually, I prefer people to be open about their investments rather than secretive about them as some players on the exchange are.
I would have to say that my range is essentially the same as your own (750k minimum and a 3 million maximum). However, at this time, I see the feasible range as being up to a 2 million maximum because of the many unknowns (mostly who the publisher is going to end up being). If the title delivers on the online and local multiplayer that High Voltage is aiming for (voice chat, smooth, local and online, multiple play types), then I see this title having a 1 million minimum.
However, in the end, I do not see enough profit potential for the current risk that comes along with this stock and I have no current position in it.
I agree, many times it makes it easier to find a proper price for a game or shed's new light on errors being made in determining the price (such as placing too much emphasis on past performances of like games, etc.).
I almost have a feeling like this could be a Age of Conan, but I have a feeling - looking over the data of similar games, listening to people in stores, around town and elsewhere talk about the Wii, and other factors - that this game will not be a sleeper hit. Rather it will be well advertised, and hyped but end up being a dud sales-wise. A 84ish metacritic reviewed game that showcases the strengths of the Wii, but the overall execution is lacking.
It encourages me to get more involved with the site and causes me to see where I may be making mistakes in my logic or analysis and what other people's ideas are. I enjoy conversations like these that are occurring on this stock, I am trying to get more people to join the exchange so that we can have increased activity and more diversity in the viewpoints about how a stock will sell. It feels to me that at times too few people are discussing the prices of stocks, which is a shame.
If I could have a link to the developer saying that, it would be greatly appreciated.
Advertising will be key for this game, the title is easy to forget and it could easily be lost in the crowd. It remains to be seen what will really motivates the 'hardcore' crowd to go out and but games like this one for the Wii, excluding Nintendo games.
I have no position. To me this game could do very badly, decent, or very well. It is too up in the air however, especially without a publisher known yet. It would be cool if people were open about their positions and views on more games on the site, like they have been with this game. I'll see if I can do that myself.
@lstormy10, I am asking for a little bit more detail than your's : - this game can easily outsell MP3: Corruption just by being advertised and marketed instead of being released quietly in the fashion that MP3 was. - I find a 1 million price point highly feasible.
Something along like mine's (750K minimum and 3 Million max) range, if you do have that kind of investment method (go long whent he price is below minimum, and go short when the price is above max) or a target price point (1.5 Million is mine #), in which you consider going long when the price is significantly below target price, and go short when the price is significantly above target price.
Of course, doing this mean that you are opening your book "open wide to every player on simEx", and I realize that not everyone are willing to do it (open their book).
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Thanks for clarifying that.