I am watching this stock with interest, currently i have no stake in it but once i have determined which way i think the market will take it that will certainly change. I think current valuation is probably too high, but that doesnt neccessarily mean i will short it straight away.
I could easily see this game flopping and doing well under a million, but then again there is always a chance it will do something spectacular so i am cautious as to which way to go.
I remember having the same feeling about Age of Conan on PC. I wasnt entirely sure but took a short position at about 100dkp price point, i got out at about 75 thinking it was too risky and had a nagging doubt it would do well. Turns out it has and the 1 stock i kept held long on it to track its progress currently shows a 300% return. I didnt go with my gut and it cost me, im not sure whether to risk making the same mistake again.
@lstormy10, So, anyone else, especialy those who keep on driving the price of this stock up, wanted to share their thought on the correct price of this stock ?
Gaara42 has done it, I have done it. Anyone else willing to share ? Normally I wouldn't ask this kind of question, but since this game is a little bit not normal, maybe we can give a "special" treatment on this stock :).
@Gaara42, I was going by the fact that is a response to another's comment about hardcore games, sale rates, and quality.
The developer of Zack and Wiki stated multiple times that some retailers were not picking up the game because of the odd title causing them to be unsure as to whether it would sell.
Even if MP3 was advertised in some regions or not, majority of any advertising that was done was ineffective from the get-go due to misrepresentation of the intended audience or what-not.
I agree that review scores are ridiculously skewed towards the higher end, which is why i take metacritic on a scale of 50-100 and disregard the first 50, so a game that scores 80 only gets 60/100 in my eyes. But in the case of Bully, i would think that reviewers thought the game was undeniably good in their eyes but only a certain portion of the public would appreciate and like it. Just because a game won't suit everyone doesnt mean it isnt good and doesnt deserve good scores.
Im not quite sure how they can say if you're not a fan of the franchise though because as far as i know its the original game and aside from ports there have been no true sequels.
No problem for the misunderstanding, I wrote it so you nearly had to understand it that way, I just want to make it clear that I meant it the other way.
Look I am a "core" gamer on the Wii, and right now, I don't know what to get next. I have Zack and Wiki (and I am nearly through) but to be honest, it is not really good. I have Boom Blox, and despite what the most said in the forums it is a game for kids.
Yes it is a nice idea, but way to easy. Basically it comes down to throw a ball where the game tells me to throw it. Oh and move your remote in a straight line. Really nice Idea, but basically a game for kids.
So, I played RE4, Galaxy, TP, MK Wii, MP3... And know I don't know what to get next (Brawl is not my cup of tea). Since Nintendo will not come forward to give me a new game, I have to rely on third party (for at least a year) and the good third party games are coming at fall, the earliest. And I say they sell, because of the "lack" of Nintendo first party games (AC is not my cup of tea either). I will buy bully most likely next. I watched ton of reviews, and in most they say: "If you not a hardcore fan of this franchise...." or "If you never played a game like this before.." don't get it! And afterward they give out a 8.5. Normally that should be a grade to get a game, but in the text they write don't do it. That why I think most reviews are gimped up, and the hell I don't know why.
Where did I say Boom Blox was a hardcore game? I was pointing out that it was a well-received game that 'hardcore' gamers would be willing to pick up and play, even if it still appealed to a casual audience.
Do you have evidence of a retailer not picking up Zack and Wiki based on the name? I find that improbable. More likely they could not find a way to easily define the game and sell it to potential buyers (supposing this even occured).
Where I lived it felt as if MP3 was advertised enough, maybe a bit less than optimal but hardly non-existent.
I have already given the reasons why I think the stock is overvalued. At the moment I do not have faith in 'hardcore' or non-casual games for the Wii - Brawl, Galaxy and Zelda are from legendary series, so they were bound to sell.
If the data I see changes on the ground, this opinion is open to change, but from the evidence I have seen, I doubt this game can reach the near 2 million we are predicting now.
@Gaara42, Boom Blox is a hardcore game? (Since when?) Also, Okami and Bully were both ports (meaning either they peformed similarly to how they performed before or that the gamers that were going to buy them already had bought the games) - making them hard to use for comparison to this title.
Zack and Wiki was good, but was not advertised one bit and some retailers did not pick up the game because of the odd name.
No More Heroes is the typical Grasshopper game - oozing in style and with some good gameplay mechanics, but lacking on the technical side and having a very constricted possible audience. In addition, it was rated M while I suspect that The Conduit will end up with a T rating.
Metroid Prime 3 was barely advertised. They had a preview channel on the Wii that came out a handful of days before the actual game came out and then some odd commercials that were geared towards casual gamers while the game itself was absolutely not a casual game.
I already explained why I think it might not pay off. At the moment because of the IPO bubble, but in the long term (at least until the game is released) it will be sustained on a hype/popularity bubble. Do not tell me in what manner I should calculate the risk I take, I use a different methodology than you when deciding what positions I should take. You have already stated you want me to short this stock so you can buy it at a lower price, so adding that threat into my calculations along with others, I do not see a reason to break the bank shorting this stock.
I will believe you on the German advertisement, excuse my misunderstanding.
I agree at times that many critics do not analyze game and tend to either bash a game or fuel the hype for a game upon review. I have games I consider 'great', yet they flopped with the critics, while at the same times games I consider 'bad' have received great reviews. So when I judge 'good' or 'bad' I tend to use metacritic or gamerankings.com.
To me it seems like Galaxy, Brawl and MK and Zelda are exceptions, at least from the experiences I have. I know friends who waited and picked up a Wii just to get Brawl, and only Brawl, and to a lesser extent with the other three. The current crop of 'hardcore' non-Nintendo games for the Wii seemed to have flopped, maybe this game can reverse the trend, but I do not believe so at the moment.
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I have already shared my thoughts previously.