Well, just consider the metacritic of Wii games with a name gimped up. I personal understand only those for the first party games. The third party critics are something I just don't understand.
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Oh sorry Gaara, that believe was not in matter of "believe MP3 got advertised if want you believe so" it was the matter in "believe that the conduit will not sell if you want to". I trust you word, without a question, on the advertisement. I hope you trust me that it didn't get advertised in Germany.
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Advertisement would be on way this game will sell good. A other thing is word to mouth, but with that it will not be seen in a lot of charts. Since Galaxy, Brawl and MK and Zelda all got a release for the Wii, there should be enough core gamers to support high sales for such titles, and I can not believe that part of the "expanded" audience would not give it a try.
You just need to get them know your game. And that is something barley happening for the current core lineup on the Wii.
I shouldn't use the word true in my sentence. That is a bad choice of word. It should be "don't agree" instead of "true". I am putting Nintendo as publisher as a factor because of your statement "Even if Nintendo is a publisher", not because I believe Nintendo is a positive factor.
"I have a belief where this stock should be but I am not unwise enough to be told to make an high-risk investment that may not pay off, especially with the IPO bubble and popularity bubble that might continue to prop the game up" It seems that : - you think this stock is high risk - it may not pay off
If you really believe that the price should be 1 Million DKP, wouldn't the price became 1 Million sooner or later ? How could you say that "it may not pay off" ?
What metric do you want to use to judge whether a game was considered 'good'?
I do not 'believe' that MP3 was advertised, I saw advertisements.
I am wondering how much this game will be advertised before it is released? It depends what the release date ends up being and what other games like it are also released at the time. It is set to release in Q1 2009, that may be a detriment if that is after the holiday season for High Voltage, as sales will slow during that post-Holiday period and less attention is paid. It might also help though since it would be less likely to be lost in the holiday shuffle. It remains to be seen.
I will use metacritic scores instead of personal taste. Zack and Wiki Metacritic: 87 No More Heroes Metacritic: 83 Okami Metacritic: 89 Boom Blox Metacritic: 85 Bully: Scholarship Edition Metacritic: 83
Could list others, but that is a good list of games that reviewed well but sold lackluster.
Okami sold bad on the PS2, but it still reviewed well and did not sell well. Bully sold well on the PS2 but did not sell well on the Wii, even though the review difference was 4% and still in the 80s.
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption Metacritic: 90
MP3 was a good game, the majority of the game takes place in a FPS perspective (some sections when the player is a ball) and the game was advertised as much and people knew as much when buying the game.
Word of mouth would work for a great game, or a game that manages to become a cultural movement. I do not expect the Conduit to be a stellar game, at least not to the level to cause people to buy it over getting Gears of War 2, COD5 (though since Infinity Ward is not heading that, maybe), Resistance 2 or the other FPSs on the Xbox 360 or PS3.
Just a quick question, and then I will be gone from this discussion. What good hardcore third party games have sold bad on the Wii?
No one did, because there are not any of them. Manhunt 2? Sold bad on the PS2 as well. Zack and Wiki? Own it, not good. That game from grasshoper? Was their best sold game to date (and to be honest, doesn't even look that good, but since I don't own it, I can't tell).
A good fps on the Wii is yet something to come (own MP3, and yes shooting is fun, but there are other parts that are not so shooter). If a game is really good it can sell by word to mouth.
"Some of your comment are not true (personally, I don't think Nintendo are a big factor, unlike you)"
Not true? Or you just do not agree with them? Please do not confuse the two. And if you do not think Nintendo is a big factor, why this question, "- They don't have publisher yet. What happen IF Nintendo is the publisher ?"
"I don't like bringing anecdotal situation into analysis"
Listening to podcast, looking on forums, talking to people, reading articles online and off, etc. - these have given me the impression that 'hardcore' games are not noticed as much on the Wii, unless they are from a well known brand (RE4 or MP3) or they are a launch title (Red Steel). That does not mean I base my entire analysis on this anecdotal evidence. Also, I never said my friends hate the Wii, they just do not play it as much, except for when they have people over, then it is a party device.
"You should drive down this stock to sub 1 Million"
Really? I have a belief where this stock should be but I am not unwise enough to be told to make an high-risk investment that may not pay off, especially with the IPO bubble and popularity bubble that might continue to prop the game up.
"The only reason I even think that there is a remote chance of it achieving 5 Million is because of Goldeneye 007 and it's 8 Million GLS"
I hope you realize the vast difference between this game and Golden Eye? Golden Eye was a moment, it was the game that proved that FPSs could be done right on a console. The multiplayer became legendary and continued to drive sales. Unless the Conduit can because a moment that pushed the games industry forward, I do not even put Golden Eye into the equation. That is essentially comparing Halo to Army of Two or Haze, and concluding the later have a chance of selling 6 million +. They might have the same elements, but one was more than a game (Halo), which is the reason why it sold so well compared to other FPSs like it.
That is a possibility, as Nintendo seems more apt at hyping Wii Fit than some hardcore FPS that might not appeal to their consumer base (and looking at the success of Wii Fit and other casual games compared to 'hardcore' games outside of Zelda and Mario, why would they).
In regards to the factor that the possibility that Nintendo may become the publisher for this title, I would like to point out that it could be a good or bad thing. Good in the way that Gaara42 has mentioned with it benefiting from the generally better sales of Nintendo published games on Nintendo consoles. Or bad in the way that Nintendo puts no effort into advertising/marketing the title (like MP3) whereas a different publisher (such as EA, Activision, or Take-Two) would more likely put more effort into advertising/marketing.
I actually believe that the publisher will end up not being Nintendo because of the fact that High Voltage is looking for a publisher that is not as restricting and more willing to go along with traditional advertising/marketing techniques. EA is one of the publishers I see picking up the title as it would fill a gap in their current Wii line-up (that currently includes sports games and casual titles).
On one last note, both of you have raised valid points about the value of this stock as it continues to remain a high risk investment.
And if you look at sales of Perfect Dark,Turok 2: Seeds of Evil or The World Is Not Enough compared to GoldenEye for N64, you can see that none of those games had sales success similar to GE.
PD had same developer, larger install base to sell to and similar game quality but only sold 31% of GE.
Turok 2 and The World Is Not Enough only sold around 1 million units, and probably did not sell 2 million, even if you include Europe and Asia.
I had a small negative position in this GLS but sold at 200DKP but I would not trade it at current price as I do not see much profit either way because of potential popularity belief.
@Gaara42, One other thing : The only reason I even think that there is a remote chance of it achieving 5 Million is because of Goldeneye 007 and it's 8 Million GLS (I know that VGC # is not reliable, but I don't have any other linkable source for it).
I know that there are major differences between The Conduit and Goldeneye 007, mainly : - brand name (James Bond is a big name) - developer (Rare vs High Voltage) - lots of game (Wii) vs. limited game (N64) but there are also some similarities : - FPS - multiplayer
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Well, just consider the metacritic of Wii games with a name gimped up. I personal understand only those for the first party games. The third party critics are something I just don't understand.
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Oh sorry Gaara, that believe was not in matter of "believe MP3 got advertised if want you believe so" it was the matter in "believe that the conduit will not sell if you want to". I trust you word, without a question, on the advertisement. I hope you trust me that it didn't get advertised in Germany.
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Advertisement would be on way this game will sell good. A other thing is word to mouth, but with that it will not be seen in a lot of charts. Since Galaxy, Brawl and MK and Zelda all got a release for the Wii, there should be enough core gamers to support high sales for such titles, and I can not believe that part of the "expanded" audience would not give it a try.
You just need to get them know your game. And that is something barley happening for the current core lineup on the Wii.