@kspraydad, I also read that Todd Greenwald cited one of the reasons BioShock cannot be compared with the GTA series is because it "lacks a trendy soundtrack." This gives me serious doubts that he understands what gamers look for in a game. GTA did have a good soundtrack, but that isn't even close to the reason the franchise was successful.
While many initially expected BioShock to be a modest hit and sell 500,000 to 1 million units, it now seems clear to us that it may sell in the 1.5 - 2 million unit range," he said. "However, with the stock up over 20 percent in the last few days, we have heard of expectations in the 3-4 million range, which we believe are unrealistic."
"Keep in mind that BioShock is only being release on one console platform (the Xbox 360), and will likely be limited by its intense, hard-core, first-person-shooter style of game," he added. "The game is very dark, very complex and will have a hard time penetrating the mass market, in our view."
Comparing BioShock to the similarly-dark-and-intense FPS Gears of War, which has reached over 3 million in sales, Greenwald said it is unlikely to reach that level of success, saying Gears of War "was a more accessible game, had more marketing support and was released in the holiday window." BioShock will also run up against the mammoth release of the much-hyped Halo 3, which is being released September 25.
Very true but this is a game that is very similar to the late - and very lamented - Looking Glass Studio's System Shock duo, both of which still retain an extremely devoted following a great many years after the company's demise.
The myth that everyone wants to engage in multi- or massively multi-player games is just that - a myth.
I was itching to buy TTWO stock after seeing the rise on BioShock stock and August future on the simExchange, but the overall corporate issues still worry me, and I didn't want to make a very short-term play. For those of you who bought TTWO after seeing the BioShock spike here, congrats! The simExchange telegraphed this move days early. The GameDaily article should've included the simExchange! If the simExchange is surprised on a blockbuster game, there's no doubt Wall Street will be as well.
After the the first day of sales for BioShock, Take-Two is definitely in rapture. The company's shares finished the day up almost 9 percent. One analyst says that the game has the potential to bring in big profits. [Update: analyst Mike Hickey says the game could sell 2 million]
Industry watchers and analysts can criticize Take-Two for being too reliant on the Grand Theft Auto franchise all they want, but the company's latest from 2K Boston (formerly Irrational Games), BioShock seems to be getting almost as much buzz as the infamous GTA franchise. And investors are taking notice.
Players with widescreen TVs and monitors are discovering that Bioshock's widescreen mode, contrary to expected practices, cuts off the top and bottom of the standard 4:3 image, rather than adding width to the picture.
Finally got around to playing the demo. The game certainly feels well polished and I never even thought about "this FPS would be better to play on PC" like you usually do for many console shooters. The game's environment is beautiful for a ruined utopian city and the atmosphere is very engrossing. The plasmid abilities were also pretty cool to use, like you could use the lightning to stun an enemy, but also electrocute water. I wish the demo had more of the manipulative game play that has been touted, such as tricking a Big Daddy to fight for you.
Overall, the game does seem like a masterpiece from the demo; however, this does not mean it has the casual appeal of Halo. Given the fact that the game is single-player only, I forsee a lot of people sharing a copy amongst friends. Although I think the game will be great and look forward to it as a consumer, I think the stock is currently on the high end (at 380 DKP at the time of this writing).
Yes, most would say 7 million is a lower bound...I would disagree with that assessment however. But that's a debate for another time and will just result in fanboy downbids so we can skip it :)
I think we can all agree that the majority of a game's sales tend to occur at its release (ignoring obvious exceptions, such as games like Halo that hang on for months/years near the top). So right now people are betting on this game being the 2nd best selling title on this system...something that over 1/3rd of 360 owners will want to pick up. It takes more than critical acclaim for a game to reach that kind of penetration...it takes mass appeal. Does this have it? I'd say no.
Yes, they are running TV ads for it...but will it win any awards (like Gears "Mad World" ad did)? Will it have people talking about it around the water-cooler? Will the image of a character who looks like the unholy-child of a 1800s diver and a drill get gamers to pick up the box? We'll see once the August NPD numbers come out.
I don't doubt that this will be a profitable game and likely a very fun one (it's already on my list to pick up when I get a 360), but I don't see it passing much more than 2 million...that's my upper bound.
Actually, you're right. 10M is an optimistic number for Halo 3. But I think most would agree that 7M is more of a lower bound for Halo 3. Even with this, I still think the 3M mark might be a lower bound for Bioshock. However, probably the wisest thing to do is watch closely the first month of sales (the month leading up to Halo 3's release).
Don't get me wrong, even though I think this title has potential to sell between 4M and 5M copies, right now I'm trading this stock between 300 and 400 DKP.
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